According to Centrist Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/10/biden-new-york-trouble-00167198
NY Times just reported that George Clooney (following in the steps of Rob Reiner, Stephen King, Michael Moore) paid tribute to Biden and called for him to step aside. Add to that a Senator who just came out and said those trying to hang on to Biden risk a Trump landslide, and him taking the Senate and the House. If NY is now truly a "Battleground State" does give one pause...
"It's devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe 'big F-ing deal' Biden of 2010. He wasn't even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate." Yikes.
"Cook Political Report moved six states toward Trump in its Electoral College ratings Tuesday, citing Biden's decline in national and private battleground polls shared by both Democratic and GOP sources." When I Google Biden, Clooney's comments and the Senator's are the main headlines. Probably a good time to take odds of how long Biden survives the onslaught of donors, celebrities, growing but small legislative backlash. Even Pelosi is noncommittal (but not brave enough to speak out against his running). If they don't do something soon, Trump may be coming soon to a White House near you in a testosterone haze.
New York is not going for Trump. We lived with him; we knew what he was about, years--decades--before he first ran for office. People at all levels of society here have been ripped off by him, or otherwise harmed by him. I don't think that Stockholm Syndrome has gotten so bad here that NY will go red or purple in the presidential election. And I don't believe polls conducted more than 30 days before the election. We don't even have official candidates yet.
"...new data is now forecasting that an electoral map that's leaning more heavily towards Donald Trump, adding to those concerns about Biden's candidacy." PBS (just now) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/new-polls-show-biden-slipping-further-behind-trump-in-critical-swing-states?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3lW9JUAD-aI6VQna3lAPkpxUO8fMKVD1yOfBXkXntM_P8Olcm3B1b-iIQ_aem_YNF3uCTXc7HappW6PB0gxQ
The reason I ignore political polls is that they already start out all over the place, then one comes out left field (an outlier) with something totally wacky. It gets everyone talking, but doesn't really help with decisions. One can make up a poll to show anything one wants, with no way for the public to determine whether the questions are legit, whose doing the poll, who were the people polled, whether AI is involved either in the questions, the analysis, or even as the "targets" polled. No way for us to even ascertain the statistical credibility of the poll.
This is true. It is the same for news stories. The best way to make sure that you're getting good information is to get it from a reliable source!
After 2016, Democrats have outperformed the polls. I'm not sure if pollsters have yet to fix their issues with polling left-leaning voters. Of course, we know in 2016 that Hillary kind of underperformed. The electoral college makes it more difficult to accurately predict who's going to win. Trump was sure that Obama was going to lose to Romney. Here's a very famous case of pollsters being way off. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1998-nov-01-mn-38174-story.html The media and some Democrats are working on a self-fulfilling prophecy. Their messages are weakening Biden as a candidate. If he loses, they can say, "I told you so." If Democrats were smart, they'd be focused on Trump's crimes and history of sexual predation.
According to Marist College polls, it appears that West, Kennedy, and Stein are hurting Biden more than Trump. If you take them out of the equation, Biden is ahead of Trump. According to YouGov, those third party and independent candidates also hurt Harris. Actually, multiple polls show that the third party and independent candidates hurt Biden and Harris, which makes sense. West and Stein are leftists, and Kennedy was a Democrat until last year. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
We live in Democracy, can't remove third party candidates. I speculate that this elections season the third party / Independent may get a higher than usual votes count.
Doug Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who served as former President Clinton’s political director, said in an opinion essay Friday that President Biden’s path to recapturing the White House “has all but vanished.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-clinton-adviser-biden-path-191444420.html “I’ve never seen such a grim Electoral College landscape for Mr. Biden: He not only faces losing battleground states he won in 2020, he is also at risk of losing traditional Democratic states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, which [former Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton and [former President] Obama carried,” Sosnik said. “If current trends continue, Mr. Trump could rack up one of the most decisive presidential victories since 2008.”
