US presidential candiates

Although I have the right to change my mind- if the Wisconsin primary were today, I would vote for Ron Paul.

Shawn

 

So would a lot of people, especially here in Canada.

 

Yesterday I went to the Romney site to try watch his faith speech (which I I was unable to see - I think his site had the wrong time listed). However I am now getting pop up adds for the morman church - coincidence or connection?

 

Not likely done by the LDS (Mormon) Church, which does not support political candidates and does not engage in popup spam advertising. I wonder if you went to a "hijacked" site that places annoying ads to create negative reactions toward the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

 

The site I went to was http://www.mittromney.com/homepage.
I misspoke when I said it was a popup add, it was a banner add (I think thats the right term) probably on Earthlink or Yahoo News home page. I usually get U of Phoenix banner (and other DL schools) adds with indicates to me that internet companies match their adds to web site usage.

 

Is it possible for Ron Paul to win not just the primaries, but the White House?

This has been a wild year for primaries and many things are very difficult to predict at this point, but I'm going to take a shot and go out on a limb and say this is a possible scenario that would allow Ron Paul to win the primary and the White House in 2008.

(1) Ron Paul wins Iowa, NH, and South Carolina.

Let's look at what is currently going on within the Republican party and the fact that Ron Paul is not being discussed in the majority of polls as he is mainly support by two groups: (a) the libertarians, (b) people who are sick of all the other candidates.

With this in mind I'll also add that Mike Huckabee could be the best debater out of this bunch, and Mitt Romney has the most impressive background thus far going on his success in the private sector, yet in most of the Fox polls after the debates Ron Paul has had numbers as high as 35% and this support is not just support, but "a fever" with his group, and he's getting better at raising money, and I'd also bet he has less corporations dolling out dollars to him as compared to the other candidates.

So, while the other candidates will split the votes of mainstream GOP voters in the primary Ron Paul has created a niche market for himself, and those are votes he does not have to worry about others taking from him.

(2) The Road To The White House..

I'm going to make a couple of crazy predictions here as if Ron Paul wins the nomination we can throw the traditional political rulebook for a White House run completely out the window and we could see the following:

(a) Christian conservatives demand an alternative for Ron Paul, so Mike Huckabee runs for the White house,

(b) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama win the democratic nomination,

(c) New York mayor Micheal Bloomberg announces a run for the White House, and remember he has recently hired a foreign policy adviser to bring him up to speed on things, which is further evidence of a run...yes, he's a republican in name only, but is more left than he is center..

So, in this scenario we have Ron Paul vs Clinton or Obama vs Bloomberg vs Huckabee..

One of the likely scenarios if this happens is that Bloomberg will put at least 3% points away from the Democratic candidate and, Huckabee will pull a sizable share of the electorate as well with his politics as Christian conservatives, and moderate independents will like his stance on many issues including taxes, so you have multiple candidates splitting the votes of the traditional candidates, leaving that feverish group of voters that are literally foaming at the mouth to turn out to vote for Ron Paul..

...Is it possible the other candidates could split the votes enough to send Ron Paul to the White House? It's certainly a possibility, is it likely? That it could be as well.

If there is one thing we must have learned over the last few years of this political madness is this is a year people don't want change - they DEMAND change - and they will vote for it. The problem is that Hillary is not a "change" candidate, people see Obama as inexperienced, like it or not Romney's belief system will hurt him with some voters..especially in South Carolina, and Mike Huckabee is the one that could pull Christian Conservatives as a third party candidate.

Yes, I'm making many assumptions here, but remember...we know one thing for sure...Americans are sick of traditional politics..I could be 100% wrong...but it could happen..

 

Why is Kucinich treated as irrelevant, even by his own party? Excluding him from the debate on the grounds of some technicality appears suspect to me. What do all of you think about that?

Susanna

 

I personally think he's crazy, although he's good to have in the debates for comic relief.

 

That's certainly a possibility as well...the problem is that IF that does happen to elect our next President, if the democratic candidate finished 2nd or 3rd in the popular vote and then was determined the winner by the House of Representatives, I can only begin to imagine the backlash of emotionalism, and with good reason. The average American is sick of both of the main parties and is really looking for someone that looks, feels, and sounds different that does not come across as a Washington insider that is well-financed by special interest groups.

That's why Ron Paul is doing so well, even though he does have a lot of experience in Washington, his approach is definitely different, and another reason Mike Huckabee is polling the way he has been in Iowa although I'm not a big fan of his, but will credit him for being possibly the best debater in this run for the White House.

 

Why do you think he is crazy? I am not a Kucinich supporter but why should we not take him serious; surely, he deserves the same respect and coverage as all of the other candidates.

Susanna

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=G980aLrAwoM

 

And why would the Democratic candidate necessarily win if the election were thrown into the House?

 

My point is that if a presidential election were thrown into the House it would be a vote by state rather than a vote by state. Consequently, if one had the barest of majorities in the 26 smallest states, that would be more important than having a majority in the whole House, if that majority were based on having majorities in a few big states. But I don't know the breakdown of which political party has a majority in each state delegation. Then, of course, the vice-presidential election would be thrown into the Senate and it would be interesting to see how those states with one Democratic Senator and one Republican Senator (like Ohio) would vote.

 

Darn! I meant to say "vote by state rather than vote by head."

 

If the presidential election is thrown into the House of Representatives, each state gets one vote. However, if the presidential election is decided in the Electotral College, then each state gets a number of votes equal to their number of Representatives (the number of which is proportioned by population) and Senators (of which each state gets two). In the Electoral College, each state votes as a bloc.

 

So if Hillary Clinton saw an "unidentified flying object" not necessarily filled with aliens, do you think she would admit it?

Susanna