For Football Fans - Just For Fun

Hi Bill - I thought about your post a bit and the only thing I came up with was this:

I'm going to divide the group of people who actually bet on football games into two categories. They could undoubtedly be further subdivided but I'm just going with two categories for now. The first category of people are just the diehard fans. They are going to bet on THEIR team no matter what the odds. There are LOTS of people betting on Miami this week just because they want their team to win. This is true all over the country. The second category of people are the ones who want to win some money. They will bet on the team that they think is going to win (or cover the spread). The percentage of people in either category effects the line in a way that seems relatively clear. As the line shifts people's attitudes shift. If the pointspread gets too wide then even the most diehard fan won't place a bet for the underdog. Do bookies use calculus?

I'm too tired to think about this clearly. The weather in Boston is going to be HORRIBLE during the game. Snow, rain, sleet, wind and coldcoldcold. My prediction: turnovers will kill the Jets and the Patriots will beat the spread.

 

Well sportsfans, the spread has shrunk to 21 points. The alleged explanation is that the weather is going to be so bad (and it really is going to be bad) that the Patriots air-game will suffer. I said that the Pats would beat the spread and when I said it the spread was 24 points. I'm still thinking that they'll win be 30 points.

 

They just announced that the Gillette Stadium parking lots are opening early at 8am for the game due to concerns about the snowstorm.

I can't imagine what Route 1 is going to look like around 6pm.

 

'Tis Monday, December 17, 2007.

Did any of the escapades, travails, (mis)adventures and highlights of yesterday's football games change your mind?

I mean ..... the mighty Dallas Cowboys lose to the Philadelphia Eagles ...... the up-until-yesterday-winless Miami Dolphins (finally) win a game at the expense of the Baltimore Ravens, The Jaguars show their (real) stuff by dispatching the Pittsburg Steelers .... and, and, my favored New england patriots survive a messy affair to beat the (lowly) New York Jets .......

So, of course, on to the SuperBowl, Patriots! Win one (or five) - and lose none - for the gipper!

 

I got the Dolphins this weekend. I think they have finally flipped the switch.

Just kidding of course

 

Hi Jake - Well, I must confess that I have had one of my opinions solidly confirmed . . .

I should NEVER try to become a sports bookie. I was WAY OFF on the spread. The Patriots could not develop any momentum in that weather. Having spent more than a little time outside that day I can tell you that it was about as nasty as it could get. The field looked in good shape and that was a bit deceiving. It was coldcoldcold. There was sleet and freezing rain. I'm surprised (and glad) there weren't any serious injuries. Hey! speaking of the weather, how about that Buffalo/Cleveland game. That was some kind of mess!

I'm glad the Dolphins got a win. No team should go through a whole year without a win. Still, they might have to learn to live with just that one win because the Patriots are going to stomp on them next weekend. After that it's the Giants (I know all about that one-game-at-a-time thing but since I'm not on the team I am allowed to look ahead. Eli Manning and the Giants looked, well they looked like losers. Are the Dolphins or the Giants going to interrupt the Patriots perfect season? Like I said, I'm no bookie but who is going to bet against the Patriots at this point?

 

At this point it all seems a bit silly and honestly, a bit boring but because I've been running my mouth about the Patriots going undefeated I guess I have to stick with it until the end. At the time of this posting the line is 22 points. Nobody thinks that Miami can win, it's all about the spread. I'm guessing that it's over 30 points and they pull Brady (and others) before the end of the third quarter. The Patriots scoring will continue after Brady's departure. Not a drop of Gatorade on the coach.

 

Maybe I've ingested too much of the Belichick "one week seasons" Kool-Aid, but remember this; no one gave the 1985 Dolphins a chance against the Bears, and we all remember what happened that night.

Well, then again, Cleo Lemon is certainly no Dan Marino.

 

It seemed like the Patriots all took a valium at halftime. They better not do that next week.

 

Game 16 to be broadcast on 3 networks on Saturday

I'm glad the NFL put the fans first on this one.


http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2007/12/26/patriots_historic_game_to_be_available_to_all_of_america/

 

It's two hours before gametime and the line is 13 points. It rained all morning where I live (close enough to matter) and the temp right now is 45 degrees (no wind).

Eli Manning was saved last week by his defensive team. He won;t be save tonight. The Giants are in the playoffs. They're not going to kill themselves trying to beat the Patriots. Once again, I'm betting that the Pats win by over 30 points.

 

Hey, I was only off by a decimal place. Still, a win is a win.

Who will beat the Patriots?

My prediction? (I have a bad record at this point)

Nobody.

 

Somewhere, Mercury Morris is crying in his beer.

 

I'm curious about peoples predictions for the first set of playoff games.

Steelers v Jaguars
Chargers v Titans
Bucaneers v Giants
Seahawks v Redskins

 

Redskins suprise Seahawks
Bucs over Giants
Chargers romp over Titans
Steelers nip Jaguars

Beyond:

Redskins squeek by Packers
Cowboys maul Bucs
Colts handle Chargers
Patriots destroy whomever

Beyond That:

Cowboys systematically take apart the Redskins
Patriots over whomever in a rout

Superbowl:

Patriots in a walk over whomever comes their way. Tom Brady then wins The Masters, Randy Moss takes Wimbledon (mixed doubles with Serena Williams), and Bill Belichick finds Bobby Fischer, drags his ass to a park bench in Boston Common, let's Fischer play White, and still smokes him.

(In a related story, Brian Billick was last seen asking the Scarecrow for directions and wondering if he could get the same deal....)

That's my take, YMMV.

 

Well Bruce, I think it's a good thing that Rich has finally come to his senses and realized that the Patriots are going to win it all. However, I don't think it's going to be as easy for them as Rich has described (it's the newcomers who are always the most enthusiastic). I'll be back at some point with my own predictions. I'm good at picking winners but not so good with the point spread (I know, you noticed).

 

I note that 77% of the poll-responders are already wrong.

 

...and that's how the bookies make their money.

 

Win Lose

Jaguars Steelers

Chargers Titans

Bucs Giants

Seahawks Redskins

There's no need to go further at this time.

 

Nonsense. Despite your churlish reaction, I've said only positive and supportive things about the Patriots. I think the videotaping issue was way overblown--and said so at the time. But you were so reactionary you couldn't see that. Instead, you repeat your mistake. I knew when I posted this you'd react that way. A lot easier to predict than the outcomes of the NFL playoffs, despite the obvious dominence of the Patriots.

"Finally come to his senses...." What a load of crap.