Not good enough, Mike

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by nosborne48, Mar 12, 2023.

Loading...
  1. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    So the former Veep says that history will hold Donald Trump accountable for his actions on January 6. Whoa. Why wait for history? What kind of temporizing mush is this? Trump needs to be held to account NOW and by the machinery of American justice!:mad:
     
  2. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    The kind that is absolutely necessary in order to win the Republican nomination in 2024.

    The successful candidate not-named-Trump will have to navigate between the Party's two dominant factions--sane and insane--without putting either one off. Increasingly, however, the sane are wanting a repudiation of the insane, making this incredibly hard.

    It used to be that the insane would just go along, satisfied with being fed "red meat" rhetoric in return for being willingly fleeced. Trump changed all of that, putting the insane at the forefront. The sane went along because it looked like a path to victory. Due to a number of strange events--including Russian interference, James Comey, and the ever-demonic Electoral College--it worked. Once. But it's fair to say it failed in 2018, 2020, and even 2022. But the party writ large has yet to come to this realization--there's a reason for this--so, two factions. It is impossible to square this circle.

    But why? Because the insane faction doesn't care about winning elections. Sure, they'll take them. But they won't go along just to allow Establishment Republicans win. In their view, those people are RINOs; next in line after they kill all the Democrats. The insane faction isn't going to be led by them; they're in charge now.

    For any candidate to sweep through the primaries, he/she will have to get the support of both of these juxtaposed factions. Who is that? If that question cannot be answered, Trump wins. He can't gather both factions completely--which is why he'll lose in the general election. But he comes the closest, sufficient to win the nomination--a series of winner-take-all primaries that can be won with pluralities. In 2016, he won the majority of delegates--by far--without winning the majority of primary votes. That has not changed.

    As for history holding Trump accountable, sure. But Pence won't. And neither will anyone else who wants the GOP nomination in 2024.
     
    nosborne48 and Bill Huffman like this.
  3. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Then Trump wins the GOP nomination.:mad::mad:
     
  4. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    You've covered my thoughts better than I ever could. ;)

    To me the 2024 prospects for Republicans seems to be getting worse by the day. If Trump gets indicted, maybe even two or three indictments, his chance of winning the Republican nomination might become iffy. If that happened, I assume he would run as a third party candidate. Not because he thinks he can win but because he would want to just rake in donations.
     
    nosborne48 and Rich Douglas like this.
  5. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    I think that's the option with the most expected value (EV).

    Instead of trying to come up with an alternative, ask this question first: Trump or the field? I still think the best EV is Trump. So, if he can take out the whole field, what chance does one individual have? Actually, better than you might think. If someone could quickly narrow this race to a one-on-one with Trump, it just might work. The problem is that it's against human nature. Without a "beknighted" one--an incumbent or an obvious "next in line" (like Hilary Clinton was)--everyone with even a slim shot will jump in. That means just about every prominent Republican who has not run in the past, plus a few not-so-prominent ones.

    If history holds, it will be like a game of King of the Hill, with Trump sitting at the top as each new challenger is identified, glorified, and then simply fried. Herman Cain. Carly Fiorina. Ben Carson. Michelle Bachman. All (briefly) assumed the mantle as The Next One, only to be tossed aside one by one.
     
    nosborne48 likes this.
  6. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    This.

    But also the tendency of prosecutors to demur in gray-area cases. And let's face it, Trump is a master of creating gray areas. He's committed so many obvious crimes as a candidate, as president, and since. But prosecutors are really wary of coming after the guy and missing.

    Look at New York. Alvin Bragg has what seems to be an obvious case. We have Cohen going to prison for paying off Daniels in an obvious campaign law violation, convicted while Trump went free, despite being identified as "Co-conspirator #1" in court filings. Cohen paid Daniels to keep her quiet, then Trump reimbursed Cohen. But Bragg doesn't want to risk his political future on prosecuting Trump. There's no upside. He won't get credit for the win if Trump is convicted--it's too big a thing for that. But he'll get blamed for the loss if Trump walks.

    This dynamic is utterly enhanced by Trump's ongoing candidacy for the nomination...and he knows it. So, yes, it's the grift. (After all, look at how tiny his grifts are; he needs a lot of them.) And the grift through campaigning also facilitates the continued grift through campaigning. How could he NOT?
     
    nosborne48 likes this.
  7. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    I can live with that. Whatever scenario better ensures that Biden/Harris get reelected in 2024.
     
    Rich Douglas and Bill Huffman like this.
  8. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Old Joe for four more, hunh? Well, I voted for Harris in 2020 and I'd vote for her in 2024. If Biden is along for the ride so be it. :rolleyes:
     
  9. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Note that Biden is younger than Mitch McConnell, and no one is saying (until his recent tumble) that he should go.
     
  10. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Yabbut ol' Mitch don't have his finger on The Button.
     
  11. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    I can think of many individuals much younger than Joe whom I would trust much less, with the Button or otherwise.
    I would be happy with any individual who can promise continuity with current administration (Pete Buttigieg?). Failing that, another capable Democrat (my fantasy President is Elizabeth Warren. Or, you know, Hillary, if she was still up to it - the woman deserves to live in peace). But I do not see any of these gaining enough momentum by 2024 to actually pull it off. So yeah, damnit, Ol' Joe for four more. I think the guy is massively underappreciated.
     
    Rachel83az likes this.
  12. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    I admit to underappreciating Joe. He is actually a very effective President. He's gotten a lot of good laws passed in only two years. Almost as much as Obama did in 8 years! I really like Obama but he let the Republicans waste almost the whole of his first two years. The main source of my underappreciation is the simple fact of him being too old. If he wants the nomination though, he'll get it and I'll vote for him.
     
  13. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    He's not TFG, and he's not far left. At this point in history, he'll do.
     
  14. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    "Far left" is a made up threat. Otherwise, fully agree.
     
  15. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Yeah, you guys are right. I do underappreciate Joe Biden.
     
  16. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Neither does Biden.

    He has the power to give the order, but not to carry it out. If done unlawfully, military leaders have an obligation to disobey that order.
     
    nosborne48 likes this.
  17. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I prefer my Presidents to be younger than I am.
     
  18. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    Not a thing for me; even Zelenskyy is a year older.

    This is such an arbitrary criterion, don't you think? If the guy is willing to go into the grinder and performs (and Joe does), why not?
     
    nosborne48 likes this.
  19. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Thinking about the issue when looking at a specific person makes it a bit more difficult, I think. For example, I would be in favor of a maximum age for a President to start a new term. Any age greater than say 62, better maybe 68, I'd be in favor of something like that.
     
    nosborne48 likes this.
  20. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Well, true, and if Ol’Joe does buy a ticket to the Great Amtrak Station in the Sky, Harris gets to be President, something I’d like to see.
     

Share This Page