The Mystery of Bitcoin

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussions' started by nosborne48, Aug 27, 2022.

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  1. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    The more I learn about FTX the more I think crypto should be shut down.
     
  2. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    I agree - but how do you shut something down, that .... "isn't." I guess governments could forbid citizens to trade in it -- but they won't. In the US, there are even specific laws about how much of it elected representatives may hold, and in what ways.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_currency_law_in_the_United_States

    Anyway, sorry to report this, but a fat lot you, I and the entire DegreeInfo Posse could accomplish in getting it shut down. Ever. And if crypto was shut down by legislation it'd probably be like The Controlled Substances Act (1970) or Prohibition. Another complete failure that would create more and more problems - and incarcerated people - and solve nothing.

    Come to think of it, trading or even owning gold bullion was off the table for Americans for 40 years. What did that solve?
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2023
  3. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    And a shutdown law, I think, would create something else I forgot to mention - more super-rich gangsters and crooks, many of whom never serve a day in jail in their lives - just like Prohibition and the Controlled Substances Act both created and nourished.
     
  4. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Bitcoin is around $30,900 as I write this. 37% gain in the last month. Not interested in playing. I got some lottery tickets given to me on my birthday, last week, and I won $13 and some more free tickets. That $13 was REAL money. I enjoyed that! :)
     
  5. LevelUP

    LevelUP Active Member

    If the U.S. decides to ban crypto, they'll probably ban it, similar to how they banned online poker by blocking financial transactions though I don't see this happening with the current congress.

    The bond market is currently pricing in a 94.7% chance of a 25 bps rate increase on Feb. 1—and only a 5.3% chance of a 50 bps hike. Some analysts are predicting an interest rate peak of close to 5%.

    However, looking ahead, some analysts expect the fed to start cutting rates by as much as a full percentage point by the end of 2024 if the economy is in a recession and inflation is under control.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hsbc-asset-says-fed-cut-121637819.html

    There's an old saying of "Don't fight the Fed." which means be careful about betting on assets when the fed is aggressively raising rates.
     
  6. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Good, because it has a built-in negative rate of return in the neighborhood of -35%. It is the worst bet of all, even worse than anything Vegas has to offer. (Because, by law, casinos have to limit their edge to 25%.)

    Variation permits a few people to come out ahead, while most lose. Gambling is a form of entertainment and it comes at a price. There is no system--besides cheating--that can beat any gambling setup, except one*. Everything else--roulette, slots, craps, etc.--is based on random independent events with replacement. That means the odds are exactly the same on every play.

    There is no such thing, for example, of a hot table, set of dice, dealer, machine, or anything else. It's just random events in which some people choose to seek understanding by finding patterns that are not really there.

    Originally it was called "The More You Play the More You Pay Tax." But that didn't do so well, so they changed it to "Lotto" or "Lottery" instead and began raking it in. (Don't check this.)

    *The only casino game that can be affected so that the odds are moved into the player's favor is blackjack. But it requires:
    • Liberal rules, such as the dealer standing on a soft 17, surrender, and a 3/2 blackjack payout
    • Perfect basic strategy (playing every hand correctly according to probabilities, not feelings)
    • Maintaining a running count of the cards, including how many decks are left to play
    • Converting it to a true count
    • Varying your bets based on the true count (this is where card counters get caught)
    • Varying basic strategy when the count indicates it (ditto)
    Got all that? Oh, and as I mentioned, don't get caught. (You will, eventually.) Card-counting is not illegal--and it's not cheating--but a casino can refuse your play if they think you can beat them. (Kinda unfair, huh? You win because you play their game better and they make you stop. That's why casinos are for losers only.) Usually, they just refuse your play and ask you to stop. But they can ask you to leave. They can also "trespass" you, which means if you return to the casino you could be arrested for trespassing. But usually they just ask you to stop playing. You can even come back on a different day--different pit boss, different dealers, etc.--and continue. It's called getting "backed off," and it happens (on average) about every 8 hours of play. How do I know? I just do, okay? :cool:

    Research also indicates that gambling addiction doesn't come from the winning or losing. Research shows that dopamine levels in gamblers go up when they place the bet, not when they learn the outcome. It's how gambling addicts can keep going despite tragic outcomes. If you took away all forms of gambling--legal and illegal--there'd be a couple of guys watching a couple of girls playing jacks and having action on the game. "I'll give you the blond and foursies...."
     
  7. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    But... it's the only form of stupidity I can actually AFFORD! :)

    You don't want to go to Canadian casinos, Rich. Horribly dismal places. Unhappy people hunched over slots or tables. VERY expensive drinks. (No freebies like Vegas - law doesn't allow. $8.50 please...) Here's a review of the Niagara Falls casino. I note - $35 for self-parking!!

    https://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowUserReviews-g154998-d608268-r835355632-Niagara_Fallsview_Casino-Niagara_Falls_Ontario.html

    I think I'd like to gamble a bit in an old, Mob-run Vegas casino. I really think I'd fit in and get along there. -- La pensiamo in modo simile. (We think alike.) But there aren't any, today ... and Havana gambling is long gone... so for gambling, I'll just buy the odd lottery ticket. For investments, I get really good advice. Excuse me -- phone is ringing. "Hi, Warren. What's up?" :)
     
  8. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Now THAT's a buffet worth eating at! Better than the ones in Vegas.
     
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  9. LevelUP

    LevelUP Active Member

    Nice deep discussion on casino odds.

    I'll add to it.

    Casino games that are mathematically beatable

    1. Craps
    You can beat craps using "dice control" (Not pure math)
    Now there are only a handful of players in the entire world that can pull this off. And you would need to buy your own craps table to practice this. Most people will argue that it isn't possible to win with this method, even if you are the best shooter in the world. So I'm fine if you label this as a theory, not a fact.

    2. Sports & other types of book-making bets
    Some people are good at predicting events, but it's extremely rare for someone to win consistently.
    Most people that win are using a strategy of capitalizing on the inefficiency between the bookmakers.

    3. Blackjack
    You can win at blackjack by counting cards using the hi/low method. You need to be able to count a deck of cards in 30 seconds or less 4 times in a row without losing count before you are ready for the casino. You would need to use software such as CVCX sim to see if your strategy would work and calculate your expected hourly rate, which can be as high as over $100hr.

    4. Poker
    Cash game pros can make 10BB's an hour which is $20-$100 an hour. In tournaments, there is a lot of variance, and you lose a bunch before you win big. For pros, the ROI on tournaments is around 20%. The rebuy tournaments have the best odds since many people give up and quit.

    No offense to idiots, but most people are idiots who give their money away. What can I say? Ya, you F around with me in the game of poker, you'll find out real quick. Hehe.
     
  10. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    You can win at anything. But the odds are against it, as I described. But variation exists, so some people do win.

    Dice control is not beating the game. It's cheating. Whether or not it can work might be debatable, but not the fact that it is cheating and can get you arrested and accused of a crime.

    Sports books start with a 10% vig (bet $11 to win $10). But you're betting against other bettors, not the house, so you can be better than they are. But, because of the house vig, you have to be considerably better than the other guy.

    I addressed blackjack. I agree with your additions. I would add a couple of things. First, getting good at the software is great, but it does not prepare you to do it in a casino with all of its distractions and scrutiny--plus dealing with the fear of being backed off. Also, your hourly expected value varies by your betting level and the number of hands being dealt to you per hour. It could be lower than your $100 figure, and could also be higher.

    Poker is another game where you're not playing against the house; the house is taking a cut of the money bet.

    Bottom line: No way, no where, no how does a casino offer a game where the odds of it winning (or merely collecting) aren't in its favor. (Hint: the worst odds in a Vegas casino: Keno. The best: blackjack.)

    Also: beware of roulette. Houses are adding a third zero, increasing the house edge from 3.5% (one zero), beyond 7% (two zeros) to just over 10%. So, if you were to play a table with 20 spins per hour, and you're betting $20 per spin (no matter how you spread it out), then you can expect to lose about $40 an hour over the long run.

    Finally, a lot of casinos--especially in Vegas--have introduced 6:5 blackjack, where a black jack no longer pays 3:2. This one thing almost doubles the house edge (depending on what other rules are in effect). It is a rip-off seen mostly at low-stakes tables (where the players are much less experienced). Bad news.

    Now, excuse me while I go back to my doctoral thesis on the fundamental investment strategies of crypto. I'm writing it with a Sharpie on the back of a cocktail napkin. I may need both sides.
     
  11. LevelUP

    LevelUP Active Member

    The book-makers are independent. So a situation may happen where let's say you have an upcoming fight between Floyd Mayweather vs. The Next Great White Hope.

    Mayweather is favored to win 50 to 1 on one book-maker and only favored to win 40 to 1 on another book-maker. You bet against Mayweather on one book-maker and for Mayweather on another book-maker, so no matter who wins, you win 100% guaranteed.

    You're right about the cat-and-mouse game with casinos regarding blackjack. You can get backed off, which you can cash out, not show your id and leave. The casino can't hold you until the police get there. That's false imprisonment. The police need an id to do the trespass. The police can't ask for id if they don't think you committed a crime. As Kanye West would say, NOW WHAT?

    I'm well aware that police and casinos will try to do intimidation tactics to get you to give up your rights. You do need some balls to do this, but it's not like you're trying to count cards in an old mob casino.

    There was a story of roulette being beaten by someone using a smartphone to calculate where the ball would fall, which turned a house edge of 2.7% into a player's edge of 18%. As I recall, in one situation, the casino found out a player was cheating and ended up being embarrassed, so they didn't prosecute the player.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428644-500-roulette-beater-spills-physics-behind-victory/
     
  12. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    The only way that could happen is if the roulette wheel was not true. Otherwise, there is no way to predict where it will land. Each spin is a random, independent event with replacement. (The numbers don't get used up.) In fact, a lot of casinos even put up signs showing the previous 20 or spins to encourage people to read into them patterns that do not exist. This for the express purpose of encouraging their wagering. ("Look, honey, 14 Black is DUE!") Other than an untrue wheel, past results have zero bearing on future results.
     
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  13. LevelUP

    LevelUP Active Member

    You know what they say, misery loves company. Gambling degenerates are my kind of people.

    That buffet they have does look nice, and I love buffets.

    I have been to some run-down casinos. Usually, they have cheaper drinks and min bet sizes.
     
  14. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    In Vegas, these were called "sawdust joints" because, at one time, they would throw sawdust on a hard floor to keep it clean and be able to sweep it up. The practice stopped, but the name stuck.
     
  15. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    I remember as a little kid in England, (late 1940s) the wooden-floor Woolworth's store about a block from where I lived, had wooden floors. They were kept clean this way. Something called "sweeping compound" had replaced sawdust -and was sold in boxes. The idea was - to shake it on the floor and sweep it up. Dust and dirt would adhere to the sweeping compound and the whole mess was thrown out, leaving a clean floor.

    I remember the same sort of "sweeping compound" in wooden-floor stores in Canada when I got here. (1952). I wouldn't doubt it may have replaced real sawdust in Vegas, too. The Mob liked a clean shop. So did the Mom and Pop small operations that preceded the first big casinos, like Ben "Bugsy" Siegel's Flamingo The small shops were somewhat more likely to have wooden floors, I'd think.

    In fact, I think the big casinos were often called "carpet joints." :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2023
  16. Genos

    Genos New Member

    Hey there. Looks like the crypto market is keeping everyone on their toes. The mystery of Bitcoin's value can definitely be tough to understand, but it's also what makes it so intriguing. I know you're wondering why BTC hasn't dropped to zero like you predicted, but that's the beauty of crypto - it's always full of surprises. Have you heard of [removed by moderator] I've seen a few people mention them as a way to understand the market's movements. If you're curious, just do a quick search and see if it helps shed some light on the mystery of Bitcoin. Keep on predicting.
     
  17. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    There is a difference between "tough to understand" and "doesn't exist."
    Do you have a citation for someone predicting that? I don't recall it.

    Crypto's price is based purely on speculation. It provides no value, generates no value, and does nothing. Because of this, it is subject to herd mentality==but that can only be observed in past events. There is zero predictability of the future. Betting on random events is called "gambling," not "investing."

    You're the second poster in the last few days who has come in boldly with his/her first post being off-topic (for the discussion board's purpose). Curious.
     
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  18. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    The link the poster gave was to a FX trading site. I think this long-established technique is called "seeding" an internet discussion, for advertising/promotion purposes.
     
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  19. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    I'll help Genos out. (Which way did he come in?) From page 1 of this thread:
    I'm sure the original prediction was in a previous thread. Can't find it right now. It was on another topic and wandered into the Crypto world - so we closed it and started the all-Bitcoin & Crypto thread, here.
     
  20. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

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