UST/Luna - Worthless now!

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussions' started by AsianStew, May 14, 2022.

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  1. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Bitcoin - down about $2,200 over the last 5 days. $19, 353 at the moment. I'm not reading anything into it.
     
  2. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    About the Church of England...I'm not an historian but from what I've read, the English Church dates back to Roman times. Sometimes the Church was on speaking terms with the Bishop of Rome. Sometimes not. But the Church has always been there since with its continuous line of Bishops (other than Cromwell's reign and even then reestablished promptly after the Restoration). The Church of England is arguably older than England herself!
     
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  3. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    I'd agree.
     
  4. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    A month ago, Bitcoin was trading at about $19K. Today it's 21.3K. At that rate it could be back up to 50K in less than two years. Conversely, it could be down to nothing in the same time period. I'm losing interest in something I never had interest in, here. Somebody -- please take over the watch. I'm not gonna be known as "Dances with Crypto." Never had skin in the game.
     
  5. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Unfortunately, we all have skin in this crypto game. Trillions in notional wealth disappeared. That affects everything.
     
  6. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Warren Buffett won't be affected, I'm sure. Notional wealth is ...um, notional, right? I don't even wanna know. And if Vladimir bloody Putin loses ALL the cryptomillions he's got squirreled away - I'll be so happy I'll (try to) dance a Ukrainian Chaika on-the-spot!

    Do you know something I don't? Has Justin been investing our tax money in crypto? :eek::eek:

    This whole thing is now reminding me of the first Chinese paper money issue - I think in the 11th century. It went so badly (hyperinflation) that they didn't do it again for 150 years.
     
  7. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Even so, it's the inflation rate that deserves all this attention.
     
  8. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I don't know. We had no inflation since the 2008 Crash until now despite the Fed's best efforts to create some. Now we have some, more than we'd like, and I don't see what's really changed except oil and food prices due to the Russian attack on Ukraine. Gasoline prices have begun to fall again with increased refinery capacity.

    There's been a LOT of government borrowing and spending in response to Covid, too. The economists don't seem to agree as to the effect of that spending on inflation. How much money was destroyed in the economic contraction?

    The Russians and Ukrainians will have to resolve their dispute eventually probably sooner than later. When they do, the old deflation pressures might reappear.

    I remember the inflation years in the 70s and 80s. We aren't there yet. Interest rates on mortgages went as high as 17%! Right now, they're up to about 5.5%, still pretty low.
     
  9. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    But yeah, I agree, it's scary.
     
  10. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    My first mortgage was at 11%. We’re not even close to that yet.
     
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  11. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    My second house came with one at 11%, too. But it was for all of $27K so it wasn't that scary. A mortgage at today's house prices at 11% - now that's scary. Funny - mortgage rates headed straight for the bottom as fast as they'd gone up -- the month AFTER I paid mine off. I still think it was somehow personal. :)
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2022
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  12. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    If rates get to 11% (or more, as they did, back in the day) people are going to be "walking away." Just like 2008-9 - just like 1980s - just like 1930s. But watch for much bigger numbers. Disaster-level numbers. Here in Canada, mortgage deals are required to be "stress-tested" - i.e. could the applicant withstand an increase of 2% in interest rates. If the deal doesn't pass the sniff-test, it doesn't happen. (Or at least, it's not supposed to.)

    But nobody said anything about a 6% interest increase. Or 8% or 10%. If that happens, it'll be nuclear. Fallout for half a century. Those predatory companies that hoard houses and release them gradually into the market for a huge profit from fast-rising pricesare gonna be s-o-rr-eee if that happens. That's the ONLY upside.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2022
  13. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Wait, do they not have fixed interest rate mortgages in Canada? Because that sounds like a nightmare.
     
  14. Dustin

    Dustin Well-Known Member

    They do not. Most commonly the mortgage is 5 over 20 (I think that's what the technical term is), so you do 5 years fixed and then the rate needs to be negotiated for another 5 years, until the 20 years. I love my 30-year fixed mortgage here in the US because I have a consistent payment and don't have to worry about the market.
     
  15. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    @SteveFoerster Right. If you're thinking of buying a home here, Steve, I think you have a few surprises in store. It is unlike the US - and that works for and against the consumer.

    Some good info here: https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/mortgage-terms-amortization.html
     
  16. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    We've got health care. You've got mortgage care. We can't write off mortgage interest on our taxes, either.
    Best route here is to be classed as a bum and have nothing. Then they'll give you EVERYTHING. :( I see it daily.
     
  17. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    So far all I see is what's against! :eek:
     
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  18. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Well, we DID get through without a subprime crisis. Totally. We don't make or securitize "Ninja" loans here. And our Federal Finance Minister at that time, the late Hon. Jim Flaherty, took some lasting precautionary steps so we don't have a similar crisis -- ever.

    The Canadian approach is usually to (try to) prevent bad things from happening. Making good things happen? Not so much. I think you guys are better at that. We have a whole generation of people now, most of whom will likely never own a home. When I was a young guy - it was much easier.
     
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  19. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Bitcoin up $1600 on the day, to 22,385.00

    It's remarkable, Dr. Nosborne. Our cupping the patient with leeches has worked spectacularly!
     
  20. Dustin

    Dustin Well-Known Member

    Yes, Mark Carney, in his role as lead of Canada's Central Bank was actually rated one of the most trustworthy politicians globally during the 2008 financial crisis. Then he got lured to England to run theirs. The upside to the Canadian system is that people are far less likely to lose their homes in a downturn because of the stress tests. The downside is that housing is a lot less accessible for the poorest Canadians. Meanwhile here in Iowa I know people who work at the gas station and own their own homes. $70,000 for a 2-bedroom, 30-year fixed mortgage so they pay like $550 a month, and they don't have to fear rent going up.
     

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