Unless we launched an invasion of the Mainland ourselves, an impossible task, I don't think Xi would press The Button. Doing so would bring swift and irresistible obliteration to Xi and his country. Even if he thought of doing it, I rather imagine some General would provide a bullet. Right then.
Hm. Another thought...the U.S. Navy and others routinely sail the Taiwan Straits between the island and the Mainland ostensibly to prove to the world that the Strait is open to innocent passage by ships of every nation. Each such transit causes Beijing to foam at the mouth and scramble their fighters. I had thought that these transits were the usual FONO but suddenly I'm starting to wonder if the goal isn't to just draw Beijing's ire but her fire. The U.S. Navy did something similar in the Atlantic just before we entered WWII. Does someone High Up actually want Beijing to pull the trigger? And if so, why? I suspect strongly that at any given time the U.S. knows the exact location of every major PLA-N combatant vessel. Are they already targeted? Is that what's going on? If I wore the heavy gold braid, I'd do my level best to have an effective first strike capability. We did learn something from Pearl Harbor after all.
The heavy gold braids do have to keep themselves busy. It sounds like a good way to keep some of them busy.
My only guesses would be hypersonic missiles, tactical EMP blasts, and/or cyberattacks. And even then, U.S. Navy subs would likely be able to sink any troop transport flotilla trying to cross the Strait.
You know, BH, the country really can't wait until an emergency is upon us to decide what to do. Planning really does matter. Plans cover a wide variety of possible cases, some more likely than others. I have never seen it, but I would be surprised if there is not a closely guarded and rather detailed plan to occupy Canada for instance. Such a possibility is remote but should the need arise we have (I suppose) a plan. I'm pretty sure we DO have a plan for a North Korean missile landing on or near Guam, a much more likely scenario, or the appearance of Chinese warships in Panamanian territorial waters.
I understand and agree completely. My previous comment was meant to be slightly amusing but not sarcastic.
Well! By the soul of Pierre Trudeau! War Plan Red DID exist! Wikipedia says it doesn't exist anymore but they wouldn't tell us if it did, now would they?
Conversely, I hope that Canada has a plan for occupying the USA. I feel it is more likely right now that the USA would fall into chaos than Canada. :-D
I don't know if Canada qua Canada has such a plan anymore but apparently the British Empire took the possibility quite seriously at least up through the First World War.
Canada will do it by starving us . A customs dispute between the U.S. and Canada has kept the Alaska pollock, used for fish sticks and sandwiches, stored across the border. Cross-border restrictions have halted the transportation of the fish and may cause permanent seafood supply chain issues.
On a more serious note: https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-surprised-us-officials-august-221600859.html China surprised US officials with August missiles test: Report Misty Severi Sat, October 16, 2021, 6:16 PM "China surprised U.S. officials by testing a new hypersonic missile in August that went around the globe before it made its way toward the intended target, according to a report. China had made "astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than U.S. officials realized," two people told the Financial Times Saturday, with another source adding he or she was unsure how China was able to accomplish it."
Oh, I doubt if anyone in the US military establishment whose job it is to know such things was "surprised ".
But there was no claim that the anonymous sources that expressed surprise were in the category that Nosborne specified, that is whose job it is to know such things.
Here's an even more excitable account of this, although that's not surprising considering it's from Dave Makichuk: https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/beijings-hypersonic-blast-stuns-us-intel-chiefs/
"Surprise" is sometimes a useful cover for protecting intelligence sources. If you tell the world that you knew all about it three years ago last Wednesday, the subject of your spying might ask itself, "Well, now, how did they know that?" A horrific example of this principle can be seen in the ruins of Coventry Cathedral.