Taiwan hot spot

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Lerner, Oct 3, 2021.

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  1. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Another big Chinese developer, Country Gardens, is slipping into default. The contagion is spreading.
     
  2. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    As something of an aside, I'm a little leery of equating laws of physics with those from the social sciences. The former are true every time, but the latter are true on balance. If you find a single counterexample to the Earth's gravitation pull being 9.81 m/s^2 that's a really, really big deal. But if you find a lone DMV office where everyone is pleasant and efficient it may be remarkable, but it doesn't upend the laws of economics.
     
    Rich Douglas likes this.
  3. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    It's like the distinction--useless, IMHO--between "hard" and "soft" science. The designations are backwards.
     
  4. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Will China's financial and environmental, climate problems lead to an increased chance of a major war?
    Or the other way around?
     
  5. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Increased, because it incentivizes the Xi regime to adopt a diversionary foreign policy.
     
    Vonnegut likes this.
  6. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    It may not be up to Xi. If he tries to do something really reckless, the Central Committee may arrest him as an Enemy of the People. That means a bullet.
     
  7. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Well-Known Member

    While I doubt there's more than a handful of individuals or agencies in the world who truly understand the intricacies of the committee, it's readily apparent that Xi has tampered any significant opposition or potential challengers to his rule. He has learned a lot from Putin, when it comes to rewarding loyalty and punishing challengers.
     
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  8. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I wonder if Xi realizes what may happen if he attacks Taiwan. The natural target of Taiwan and her allies will be the PLA Navy which might be facing the combined efforts of the U.S. Navy, the Royal Navy and the Japanese Defense Force Navy with the able assistance of Australia and India. I place the latter two in a supporting role due to the difference in size and experience. The Big Three should give even Xi pause but I wonder if it will. Does he have any clue what might happen?
     
  9. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    In addition to military costs, I suspect there would be large financial costs that the whole world would suffer. Punishing China financially for moving militarily on Taiwan would be bad for the whole world but disaster ours for China.
     
  10. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I've been trying to think this out as the former Navy officer I am. Speaking in the broadest terms possible, it seems to me that since the Chinese Civil War and the piecemeal Japanese invasions of Chinese territory in the 1930s, China has been a land power. Land powers can develop impressive Naval strength but sea powers like Britian, Japan, and the U.S. whose Navies engage constantly in a wide variety of operations throughout vast oceans tend to outclass the, well, newcomers. Sea powers have effective maritime cultures and routinely create a class of competent, experienced officers and technically capable crew. It is, frankly, easier to train a capable infantryman than a capable seaman. The latter just takes longer. A lot longer.

    I don't know anymore, of course. So much has changed since I went to sea. But I have my doubts that everything has changed.
     
  11. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    As an aside, the current Japanese "Navy" (they don't use that term) is quite possibly the most capable Navy in the Western Pacific today. Japanese seamen know what they're about.
     
  12. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    It's not just maritime capability. Two-thirds of the nuclear triad are controlled by the US Air Force, and our conventional capabilities are immense. This is especially so if faced with a conventional war.

    But it is the pilots, not the equipment, who truly make the difference. And that's where the US really shines. Two examples:

    • In the Korean War, our pilots flew inferior aircraft against Russian-made MiGs, operated primarily by Chinese pilots. (We flew the F-80, then upgraded to the F-86). Jets in those days had very low fuel levels and, thus, had very short loitering times. Additionally, our pilots had to fly a long way to MiG Alley to engage them. Despite short loitering times and inferior aircraft, we maintained an 11-to-1 kill ratio. Why? Two reasons. First, we had superior pilots. Second, our pilots had freedom in operations while theirs were heavily controlled on the ground. This Soviet-style method reflected their lack of confidence in their pilots and their need to control things. We ate them up.
    • A related incident was near Libya. Two Libyans, flying Soviet-made SU-22s, flew up against two US Navy jets. Again, the Libyans were tightly controlled on the ground while the Navy aviators had free rein. The two Navy aviators split up, heading in different directions. The two Libyans should have chosen one to pursue 2-on-1. Instead, they split up, too. The Navy aviators shot them down in parallel one-on-one air battles. It wasn't even close.
    All that new, shiny hardware the Chinese have is fine. But we would beat them with ours, and we would beat them with theirs.
     
  13. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I don't know what Chinese doctrine for combat operations looks like of course but if Xi's tendency to personal rule and intolerance of dissent in the political sphere are any indication, his military officers might not be free to act as they see fit. That's fatal.
     
  14. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Reminiscent of the much tougher time the USSR had during the second world war thanks to Stalin being afraid of capable generals and sacking them in advance.
     
    Rich Douglas likes this.
  15. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    He purged (murdered) a great number of them during the decade before WWII. When Germany attacked, the USSR was almost bereft of experienced military leadership. It was Zuhkov who saved Stalin's bacon--for which Stalin marginalized him after the war.
     
  16. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Or the Germans. Or the various Arab states against Israel over the years. Arguably, at times even the interference of Jefferson Davis in the actions of his field commanders did a good bit of harm.
     
  17. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    We studied this as officers. Understanding the various cultures involved also helps us understand their command-and-control structures. If you have a culture that places a high value on compliance, and you have a highly-controlling government, you're less likely to see sufficient field-level autonomy. It applies to the Russians even to this day, and you know it fits the Chinese perfectly.

    They don't trust their officers because they cannot--due to the officers' incompetence and unpreparedness to lead autonomously.

    I had a colleague who received an assignment as a maintenance officer assigned to a foreign country's air force. During his tour, when he came home on leave, I remarked that it must have been exciting. He said no, because no one ever did any aircraft maintenance. That was because no one ever flew. Assignments like being a jet pilot were largely political and social and had little to do with actual skill. Also, if you fly it, you might crash it, and there's no upside to that. So, he sat around and drank coffee all day, waiting for his tour to end. The country? A Middle Eastern autocracy who's air force had grown up with Russians as advisors.
     
  18. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    And at some point launched a failed attack against Israel. As one General said to the then Prime Minister, "It's alright, Golda. They've gone back to being who they are and we've gone back to being who we are."
     
  19. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Very interesting discussion, thank you!
     
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  20. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    It's funny. In my own mind I keep envisioning how the U.S. Navy would react to an invasion of Taiwan. I have some notion of what might be possible IF the politicians and the Pentagon would allow it. Every scenario I come up with leaves the PLA-N on the bottom or hiding in port and every PLA fighter shot down. I just don't see how Xi could manage it. But please keep in mind: My opinion is 1) outdated and 2) badly informed. Place no bets on what I might say.
     

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