Tea leaves?

What we saw in last elections is that Californians etc, didn't make rural states without a vote.
This is the gift from the framers of the U.S. Constitution.
The framers by compromise gave us the electoral college, they feared a headstrong “democratic mob” steering the country astray.
Or a populist president appealing directly to the people could command dangerous amounts of power.

Everything is possible.
I was more times wrong then right in my predictions. I was surprised in 2016.
The question is if there are an un-polled base of Trump voters?
In addition are there registered Democrats who will vote for President Trump to give him the margin needed or vice-versa?

Another question, is the concern that VP Biden may step down due to possible health related or age related issues or something else.
Some who are voting for Biden are asking the question are they ready for Kamala Harris to be the President of the USA?

 

There's an article out that says the opposite: https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained

As for when we might know, it could be before midnight Tuesday. If Biden takes Florida--which is a quick vote-counter--it's over.

There are three decision points. The one above is the first--a pre-projection understanding of the political land. There are states Trump simply cannot lose and, if he does, one can safely infer the result even before....

The second is the statistical projections, state-by-state. This might take a bit longer. (In 2016, the networks didn't project a Trump win until after midnight on the East Coast.) Projecting a winner will require the projection of enough states to get to 270 projected Electoral College votes. Again, this could come early or late, depending on the outcomes and which states are doing the projecting. (Some states count and submit running totals more quickly than do others.) Then....

There's the actual vote counting, which can go on for several days after the projection, but which almost never changes the outcome. (See Bush v Gore for an obvious exception.)

I suspect we'll know before midnight and get a projection later in the night.

 

In defense of the Electoral College...the federal government was INTENDED to be, and to some extent still is, an agreement among the states to a common federal authority for limited purposes. The federal government was not intended to be the primary governing authority for the individual citizen. That is the function of the various state governments. This federation model began to shift in the early 1930s in response to the Great Depression and really hasn't shifted back. My point is, every state should have an audible voice in the choice of the President if you adhere to the federation model.

 

If there is a reason to doubt the source, please provide it. To my knowledge, Vox is not known for dealing in falsehoods or hyperbole.

 

I think this was really meant more as a joke, which I did enjoy. But if you go into Steve's interesting mediabiasfactcheck link and search for lots of different kinds of news which I did for CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, and Fox. They are all really rated about the same as Vox. Well except Fox is on the right instead of left but just as accurate/inaccurate. The two exceptions were CBS and ABC were ranked very slightly better. All which I agree with. Now I've said before though that I assume these ratings cover the live broadcasts. I believe that CNN and Fox are both much more accurate and balanced when looking at the written articles.

P.S. Just to bug the Conservatives, both Washington Post and the New York Times were rated much higher for accuracy. While the New York Post was shit.

 

If one is at all interested in what is involved in polling accuracy the Vox article is very good.

 

So when you have a poll showing a candidate leading by 12 points (was it Iowa?) a day before the elections and that candidate looses is it because Russians stole the elections .
I don't trust polls.
But this time around I will see how right or wrong I'm.
Politically motivated polls are psychological weapon. If one hears that election is tied, one encouraged to vote. If one hears their candidate is trailing by a large margin they may stay home and say why bother voting , my candidate is a toast anyway.

Soon we will know, not sure how many days it will take to have the final results. Will there will be recounts and other issues?
Suddenly remembered Florida in 2000.

 

Okay, folks! Here we go! Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania and Florida! And don't fail to vote!

 

I think I heard somewhere that this school was placed on Show Cause -- and might even lose its Accreditation.

 

Yes and North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, even Texas. If the tabulations show a Biden win in any of those then the drama could be close to over. (Florida might be an extra fast count!)

 

Wow! I am glad the site came back up so that I can eat an appropriate amount of crow. As of this post, Biden needs win only Arizona and Nevada to cross the 270 line and he is ahead in both states. Since the election itself is over, I can now say that, as a good Democrat, I voted for Harris.

 

No crow-eating. Yes, it looks like Biden, but it also looks like the country is a lot more evenly divided than it was appearing to be. It looks like we'll have a Democratic-controlled House, a Republican-controlled Senate, and a Democrat in the White House.

I've had visions today of three old Washington salts, Pelosi, Biden, and McConnell, working together to move the country forward while remaining true and loyal to their respective constituencies. You know, what we used to call "common ground." Those three have the chops to do it, and they all know each other very well. Here's hoping!

 

There is still a chance that President Trump may win.
In order to get 27o he needs to get AK - 3, PA - 20, NC - 15, GA - 16 and NV- 6 maybe? = 60 - Trump appears to have 214 now so maybe 274 ?
So its still a possibility since NV Biden leads by .6% and only 75 % of votes counted, NV.
There will be challenges from both sides.

 

Or a false elector. But I think Biden is doing better in Georgia and Pennsylvania than I had thought as well. We will know better tomorrow.

 

Just like I had no confidence in the various polls that were off and some by a lot (maybe intentionally).
The same here as there are states with a voting processes that are suspicious and have no transparency. This makes it hard to have confidence in a fair process.
So false something is a possibility.
Let the competent authorities to handle this.