Sexual assault claim leaves Kavanaugh nomination in limbo

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Abner, Sep 15, 2018.

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  1. me again

    me again Well-Known Member

    The FBI is investigating:
    • Christine Blasey-Ford is refusing to hand over her therapy notes to FBI investigators. Judge Brett Kavanaugh is not named in Ford's therapy notes, as she previously claimed. However, the FBI cannot legally subpoena Ford to demand the therapy notes (at this juncture).
    • During the polygraph of Christine Blasey-Ford, she was never asked if she was sexually assaulted by Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Instead, she was asked if she was sexually assaulted by someone. She answered in the affirmative and she passed the polygraph. Something did happen to Christine Blasey-Ford in her past -- and it is being used to frame Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
    • The FBI has expanded its investigation into other suspicious acts, as authorized by President Trump.
    • What is Rod Rosenstein's role in all this?
    The full FBI report will be forthcoming for public disclosure. o_O
     
  2. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    Of all the pseudoscience that has ruined peoples lives, I have a particular dislike for 2 of them- homeopathy (off topic for this thread) and polygraph exams (on topic!). Mostly for the same reasons, that they distort people's understanding of reality and that they divert attention away from the real problem.

    Since this topic is a *poop* show anyway, I'll just veer it off the rails and list a few problems with polygraph exams.

    1) There is no universal understanding of what it mean to be untruthful.

    2) There is no universal set of human physical reactions that coincide with telling lies.

    3) When reactions are detected there is absolutely no way to know what the reason for the reactions are. Even the American Polygraph Association admits that failed test results due to deception are entirely indistinguishable from failed test results due to the test-taker fearing the consequences of being wrongly accused.

    4) Even if none of the above were true, it would still be true that the test is biased in favor of people with little or no conscience and a lot of practice lying, and against people who have very strong consciences and comparatively less practice lying. Similarly, those with an internal locus of control are more likely to consider themselves responsible for anything whereas those with an external locus of control are less likely to accept that they are personally responsible for anything, distorting their understandings of the questions they are asked and the way they feel in reaction to hearing them. (see #1)

    5) Every single time polygraphs have been independently researched by non-stakeholders (ie, real scientists, not paid shills), they have been found to be only marginally more reliable than a coin flip.

    6) If more people tell the truth when taking polygraph exams than tell lies- as some research suggests they do- then false test results are more likely to occur to people telling the truth than those who are lying. This means that, at any accuracy level, truth-tellers will be over-represented among those determined to be liars. (If we follow the 80/20 rule as just an example, and we assume 95% accuracy as polygraph peddlers falsely assert, crunching the numbers leaves us with 4/23, or 17% of all "liars" actually being truth tellers. So even if the test were actually 95% accurate, there is still a terrifyingly high chance that the wrong people are being blamed for things they didn't do.)
     
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  3. Abner

    Abner Well-Known Member

  4. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    That's only if polygraph result is treated as conclusive, instead of some degree of (Bayesian?) support for/against truthfulness. A lot of medical tests have the same exact property (most positives are false positives) and are still useful. A doctor scared the fudge out of my wife and me by not presenting the statistic significance of a test result in the right way.
    Kavanaugh is clearly not very truthful, as evident by things he said that are not true. Polygraph test would not add much to that. It's mildly notable that he refused to do it though.
     
  5. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    Trump, along with the whole Republican Party and their vocal followers, muddies the water on purpose.
    Kavanaugh was a drunk horny frat bro in HS and college. By itself, it's unwise, but hardly a dealbreaker. Many people were like that. But there are two twists. First, this fact is consistent with what Dr. Ford is saying. Second, and key: Kavanaugh is lying through his teeth denying that he was a drunken frat bro. Saying many small and medium specific lies in process. One example: he participated in verbal abuse of someone named Renate Schroeder. It's right there in print. This is horrible, but sort of not unlike dumb things teenagers do. But did he own up to it, apologised? No - he huffs and puffs and denies and shifts the blame to Democrats, the press, anyone. This is not something dumb 17-year-old did. This is something an adult Judge and a nominee to the most influential court on Planet Earth does now. This is why he should be denied the nomination.
     
  6. Phdtobe

    Phdtobe Well-Known Member

    Not trying to change the topic, but how about Sen. Blumenthal and his Vietnam exploits? I was reading some quotes from him on his time in Vietnam. I will grant him this, he is very imaginative! Not changing topic from the alleged serious allegations against Kavanaugh. It is quite clear that Kavanaugh was a party animal in HS and university.
     
  7. decimon

    decimon Well-Known Member

    Your fevered imaginings are not facts.
     
  8. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    Abner likes this.
  9. decimon

    decimon Well-Known Member

  10. Abner

    Abner Well-Known Member

  11. Abner

    Abner Well-Known Member

  12. Abner

    Abner Well-Known Member

  13. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    Nah, just another vacuous "everything white men do is always evil, no matter what it is, and we can't possibly ever give them even a smidgen of dignity, presumption of innocence or allow for a margin of human error" rant from the less-than-wonderful Huffington Post.

    Since I went so far as to bring back old-time jargon, I might just call them umnews (sic) from now on.
     
  14. Abner

    Abner Well-Known Member

    On another note, Lindsay Graham sures looks bad when he makes those scrunched up "Angry white man faces"!
     
  15. decimon

    decimon Well-Known Member

    You're Alan Dershowitz? https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/409209-dershowitz-all-the-rules-are-called-off-when-white-man-is-accused-by-left-of
     
    Maniac Craniac likes this.
  16. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    More racism.

    Please stop, Abner.
     
  17. me again

    me again Well-Known Member

  18. me again

    me again Well-Known Member

  19. Abner

    Abner Well-Known Member

    Calling a white guy a white guy is racist now? Sounds overly PC to me.
     
  20. decimon

    decimon Well-Known Member

    "Angry white man faces"! is more than calling a white guy a white guy. And if your heritage is European then you are a white guy.
     

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