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  1. #1
    Phdtobe is offline Registered User
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    A new world order

    North Korea just tested a hydrogen bomb about 8 times more powerful than those dropped on Japan, and small enough to fit on an icbm. It was so power that people in China panic, 6.4 on the rector scale.

  2. #2
    SteveFoerster is offline Resident Gadfly
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    If that's true, then maybe the Chinese regime will finally curb its dog?
    BS, Info Sys concentration, Charter Oak State College
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  3. #3
    heirophant is offline Registered User
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    There are already ideas being floated that the US place a complete trade embargo on all countries that trade with North Korea. Since the great majority of North Korea's trade is with and/or through China, that seemingly means closing the US market to Chinese imports and halting US exports to China. (Which would likely crash the Chinese economy which has grown dependent on the constant massive flow of money and industrial capacity from the US that fuels their development.)

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    In practice, that might get walked back to sanctions on particular Chinese enterprises (state and otherwise) that do business with North Korea and not with the Chinese economy as a whole. (Apple makes all of their IPhones in China, so we can guess what they think.)

    That kind of maneuvering can get rather Byzantine, since China has a Party Congress coming up that kind of combines a US political convention and presidential inauguration. If President Xi appears weak, unable to control the North Korean situation that's spiraling out of control and in so doing endangers China's trade ties with its most important customer/victim, the cornerstone of its whole 'Rise of China' strategy, he is likely to come under pressure from rivals in the Party. So Xi might be under a lot of pressure right now to produce something and to look strong. I'd guess that's part of the game the US is playing.

    But that strategy assumes that China has enough leverage on North Korea to halt its nuclear weapons programs. That's questionable.

    Another option on the table, but one that I don't see as being on the top of the pile currently, is a preemptive strike. The problem with that one is that lots of people will die, probably not all of them in North Korea, and whatever country launches the strike will forever be branded the aggressor and the party responsible. The Japanese are starting to talk publicly about this option, which is a huge departure from their post-war military posture.

    Wary of North Korea, Japan mulls additional military options | Fox News

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/saadiam.../#43d797be6f7a

    So I think that what I would personally favor is large-scale movement of military assets (including tactical nuclear weapons) towards North Korea along with announcement of a 'Launch on Warning' policy. If NK has hydrogen bombs, they can't just be launching missiles at will in the direction of and over the heads of their neighbors. So announce that if we ever detect any missiles leaving North Korean territory and even heading in the general direction of US territory (including Guam) or any US ally (like Japan), our retaliatory response will be immediate, devastating and if necessary nuclear. Make clear that the North Korean regime wouldn't survive.

    That's basically a smaller and more localized version of the same strategy that we had regarding the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. Make that clear. It's nothing new. Draw a line and leave no doubt that if it's ever crossed, then that's effectively a declaration of war. If North Korea once again fires any missiles over Japan or tries any other provocation like that, then they would run a very real risk of getting nuked. Make very clear that we have the assets in place to do it and make sure that Pyongyang knows it.
    Last edited by heirophant; 09-04-2017 at 07:32 AM.

  4. #4
    Bruce is offline Moderator
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    I think embargoes take far too long to be effective, not to mention that Kim Jong-Un has proven beyond any doubt that he has no problem at all starving his own people to feed his military machine.

    I think the best chance for minimal loss of life is to chop the head off the snake, and hope the remaining body acts like this;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPIdRJlzERo
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  5. #5
    Kizmet is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce View Post
    I think the best chance for minimal loss of life is to chop the head off the snake
    It's a good visual metaphor but what does it mean in real life? Some kind of Seal Team 6/Expendables thing?
    American College of Sports Medicine

  6. #6
    Kizmet is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by heirophant View Post
    There are already ideas being floated that the US place a complete trade embargo on all countries that trade with North Korea. . . .
    This stuff gets real complicated real fast and it's already outside my comfort zone. So here's a question that comes to mind, what about the fact that China owns some ridiculous percentage of the USA. They own lots of companies, lots of real estate and they own a lot of US debt. Isn't that something they could turn against us in the case of an embargo?

    The Biggest American Companies Now Owned by the Chinese | Fortune.com

    What in the world does China own? - BBC News

    https://www.thoughtco.com/how-much-d...na-own-3321769

    The Chinese Are Buying Large Chunks Of Land Across America (And Zillow Is Now Enabling It) | Zero Hedge

    https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-...it-own-3306355
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  7. #7
    Johann is offline Registered User
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    Saw on the news 3 hours ago that:

    (1) The nDPRK Ambassador to the UN has said there will be more "gift packages" (his phrase, in English) for the U.S.
    (2) None other than Vladimir Putin is trying to broker peace, telling U.S. and China it's too dangerous to pursue further threats and ante-upping.

    When Putin is chief peacemaker - it looks like a VERY bad scenario.

    J.

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  9. #8
    Johann is offline Registered User
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    I heard also, post hydrogen-bomb or whatever, that nDPRK is known to be moving another ICBM to its coast. Another "gift package," as the Ambassador referred to them?
    Maybe that "hydrogen bomb" was really an accidental detonation of the world's biggest Kim-chi jar! Maybe if I stick my head back in the Canadian snow for 6 months, this will all be gone...
    Or maybe I will be! Say, does vaporization hurt?

    J.
    Last edited by Johann; 09-05-2017 at 02:03 PM.

  10. #9
    decimon is offline Registered User
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johann View Post
    I heard also, post hydrogen-bomb or whatever, that nDPRK is known to be moving another ICBM to its coast.

    How many do they have?

  11. #10
    Phdtobe is offline Registered User
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    No country should have nuclear or hydrogen bombs. What is going to stop other countries from developing nukes? Unless you are a banana republic in the Caribbean or Africa that have neither money nor technology-nothing can stop you. Sanctions, the treat of force, cash payments, not working. Ukraine gave up its nukes and got invaded.

  12. #11
    heirophant is offline Registered User
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce View Post
    I think embargoes take far too long to be effective
    Especially if they are dialed back to please various US business interests.

    The problem with an embargo is that the vast majority of North Korea's trade with the external world is with China. The US already doesn't trade with North Korea, so the goal of any embargo would have to be to stop China from supporting the NK regime. I don't really see that happening. But there's still an outside chance it might, since Chinese President Xi probably doesn't want his political rivals to accuse him of letting the NK situation spiral out of control to the point where nuclear war on China's doorstep is a real possibility.

    Inducing China to lean on North Korea is perhaps the US government's last hope short of war. That's why Washington is grasping that final straw.

    not to mention that Kim Jong-Un has proven beyond any doubt that he has no problem at all starving his own people to feed his military machine.
    He's a pudgy little bastard. He'll have plenty to eat while his people starve.

    I think the best chance for minimal loss of life is to chop the head off the snake
    If we can get good intelligence on precisely where he is at a particular time, we could put some missiles on top of it. Of course trying that would likely trigger a retaliatory nuclear strike on Seoul (and maybe further away).

    and hope the remaining body acts like this;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPIdRJlzERo
    That worries me. North Korea is the world's closest approximation to George Orwell's '1984'. Everyone only knows what they are told by a regime that controls all access to information. That includes Kim Jong Un himself since everyone around him only tells him what he wants to hear (if you don't, you die, very unpleasantly). And it's true for everyone else around him too. In the NK military, soldiers are graded on their loyalty and fanaticism, with the most reliable soldiers are placed in special elite units. We can assume that they receive the best equipment, including the nuclear weapons, most of the fuel (often in short supply), vehicles and most of the training.

    So if the snake loses its head, the average North Korean soldier might have doubts (especially if that soldier's family has been starved to death or disappeared into the labor camps). But I expect that the elite will never question and will fight to the death for a regime that they believe is supernatural and is divine to them. Killing Kim Jung Un would be like announcing the apocalypse as far as they are concerned and nuclear weapons would probably be used.

  13. #12
    SteveFoerster is offline Resident Gadfly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kizmet View Post
    It's a good visual metaphor but what does it mean in real life? Some kind of Seal Team 6/Expendables thing?
    Or more like The Interview?
    BS, Info Sys concentration, Charter Oak State College
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  14. #13
    heirophant is offline Registered User
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    In the spirit of North Korea's latest missile fired over the heads of the Japanese into the north Pacific, here's a Rand Corporation report from after 9-11 about the effects and aftermath of a hypothetical terrorist nuclear attack on the port of Long Beach. This one didn't imagine a nuclear missile and instead hypothesized a 10 kiloton nuclear bomb in a shipping container. See especially p.13 ff.

    https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...RAND_TR391.pdf
    Last edited by heirophant; 09-15-2017 at 06:45 PM.

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