"Don't count on the European Union," ..."Look to the U.S.; they're our real friends.&

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/11/international/europe/11turkey.html?pagewanted=1&hp

 

What are the chances Turkey ever becomes a member of the EU? According to Harvard Professor, Dr. Samuel Huntington, "none".

Latest developments on EU constitution referenda moves Turkey away from the EU and closer to the US. As preposterous as it sounds, most people here consider Turkey an Asian country that has nothing to do with Europe in any possible way. They are terrified that if Turkey is accepted there will be a flood of Turkish (Muslim) workers. This is especially evident in small countries like Holland or Denmark where Turkish emigrants have been living for decades and have ben unable to integrate (whatever that means). The EU would also border with hot areas like Irak, Iran or Syria, which is against the wishes of Europeans. That´s the vox populi,and that´s what people (against their political leaders´wishes) have expressed in those referenda. That´s why I agree with Huntington. All Turkey will get is a priviledged relationship to help anchor her in the West, and prevent her thus from looking east and north. I find it very difficult to believe they will ever be accepted.

 

BTW, I seriously doubt American neocons trust Turkish officials. Hate towards the US grows by the day in that country,and PM Erdogan´s conciliatory gestures do not match the hostile feelings of Turks. I think the US understands much better than the Europeans the strategic value of Turkey, and for that they just pretend everything is OK. But, after what they did to Rumsfeld and to the US by extension, the trust is broken, even if they try to mend fences like Erdogan did last week. It will take a long while to restore the confidence.

 

Re: "Don't count on the European Union," ..."Look to the U.S.; they're our real frien

So, the Turks expect to become America's 51'st state? Good luck.

But if that's not what they expect, then how is America preferable to Europe?

I'm sure that both the US and Europe can offer trade agreements, military and diplomatic cooperation and the like.

I'd guess that the Turks prefer American military cooperation because the Pentagon is stronger and more unified than Europe with its 25 defense ministries. But I'd also guess that they prefer the generally less-confrontational European diplomatic stance towards the Muslim world.

So I expect them to remain friendly with both the US and Europe, but to perhaps try to play us against each other a little bit for their own benefit.

But this isn't a zero-sum game. The Turks can be friendly with Europe and the US simultaneously. Perhaps Russia or China will try to woo them as well. They won't be without boyfriends, but nobody is likely to be proposing marriage.

One thing that I don't really foresee is the Turkish government moving very much closer to the more Islamist states like Iran or Saudi Arabia. The Turkish military still kind of call the shots from behind the scenes, and they are heavily committed to secularism. So they would probably fear the Islamists as threats to themselves.

But if there's a lot of popular disillusion about Turkey's European hopes not being fulfilled, then we might conceivably see an Islamist reaction among a segment of the civilian population.

That could bring a military crackdown (it has in the past). And that in turn would elicit a whole lot of finger wagging from the finicky Europeans. But guys like Putin wouldn't mind at all.

 

Hey, wait a minute, I seem to recall Turkey refusing to cooperate during our invasion of Iraq. That doesn't sound like wanting closer relations.

Turkey IS radically different from Europe. It is a MUSLIM country whose history and culture consists primarily of FIGHTING Western European powesr (the victorious ones, anyway).

 

Yes, but they feel they are European (5% of its territory lies in the continent), and the cost of having them out is probably higher than to accept them. Turkey is a bridge between cultures; it is not clearly European, it is not clearly Asian. A bridge doesn´t belong to neither shore. Turkey could become a real democracy under the auspices (and the funds!) of the EU. It would then be the first Muslim country to embrace democracy, instituting a model for other Muslim nations that might follow her steps. It could be then a way to increase safety for EU citizens. The problem is that technically it is not feasible. Turkey would be the newest poorest member and would have a power that could be compared to that of France or Germany, which is simply preposterous. Billions and billions are needed to bring this country to EU standards and, of course, no one wants to pick the tap (look at the problems they are having now to consensuate a budget!). On top of that, as I said yesterday, there would be a popular revolt if they include Turkey in the Union. This is not the best time for further enlargement, but, no doubt about it, Turkey will be somehow included in Europe. The US has already decided so,and has Tony working on it

 

And I suppose that if the EU can forgive Germany's piccadillos during two world wars, Turkey's treatment of the Kurds and Armenians should be EASY to swallow...

No, I know better, really. I know that the idea is to work for a peaceful FUTURE without allowing the past to get in the way...otherwise the U.S. might have some trouble with slavery and...well, genocide, I suppose of our indigineous population...

 

Yes, the EU´s purpose is basically what you say, to avoid future picadillos You know that people over here have the tendency to do picadillos every once in a while both at home and overseas. Now we release the adrenaline excess through the Eurovision Song Festivals, and we pretend to get along through this EU thing.

 

Since we're talikng about countries that are part Asian, part European, what of Russia? Are they in the EU? If not, do they have a chance?

 

No, and no.

Russia would destroy all political equilibrium if accepted. I think in the future there will be some sort of neighborhood agreement but no political union. Some people, like eccentric Italian PM, S. Berlusconi, want to admit Russia and even Israel but I don´think it is realistic. Most likely there will be a neirborhood treaty for all the countries in the Mediterranean basin (Israel, Egypt, Morocco, etc...), and another for Eurasia (Turkey, Georgia, Ucrania and Russia). Free market and some structural funds in exchange for political concessions in democracy, liberal economy, corruption etc ...).

But let´s see if the EU doesn´t disintegrate after this weekend´s Council of Minister. They are discussing the budget for the next six years, and no one wants to give more money aftetr the last enlargement. The EU wants the British to give up its "rebate", and the British want French to reevaluate the Common Agricultural Policy (from where French people grab a lot of funds). What a mess this EU thing! It should be redesigned.

 

It would certainly upset the EU status quo. Russia's population and geographical expanse would make its voice hard to ignore.

Besides, I'm not sure if Russia would want to compromise its soverignty with Brussels. I get the impression that Russia still sees itself as rightfully a super-power and that it hopes to regain its clout.

And Russia would have to change pretty dramatically to meet EU membership standards, wouldn't it? I get the impression that conversion to a market system is still incomplete, the rule of law is questionable at times, and there's still a lot of corruption and political authoritarianism.

Since their recent election, maybe Ukraine would be a more realistic applicant than Russia. Belarus is probably out of the running until Lukashenko goes.

Ukraine has a president who is at least superficially Western oriented. I get the impression that Poland and some of the other eastern Europeans are pulling for them. And Ukraine is small enough that it wouldn't overshadow all of the other EU members like Russia would.

It will be a lot of work to raise Ukraine to European standards. So working towards EU membership would be a long process at best. Extending them the future membership possibility might help motivate Ukraine to make the right kind of changes, though.

But Russia wouldn't like to see Ukraine drifting away. Russia kind of started in Kiev and historical ties are close. That would have to be managed with care.

Ultmately though, Ukraine really needs to get its economy up to speed. Otherwise it could just end up being Europe's Mexico (as Turkey threatens to be), a source of large numbers of poverty-ridden migrants in search of the good life who might end up causing problems for their host countries.

(Ukraine does have high literacy standards and lots of industrial skills, so we aren't talking illiterate peasants here. The most direct threat might be to western European trade unions.)

At least the Ukrainians wouldn't be Muslims so there wouldn't be that deep cultural obstacle to their integration.

 

Ukraine has recently expressed its unambiguouswishes to join the EU. In fact, it triggered a debate over whether EU funds would be better spent in Muslim (but pro West) Turkey or in European Ukraine (both needing a vast sum of funds). I agree that membership negotiations would bring this country to higher economic & democratic standards, but the EU enlargement has a limit, and after yesterdays´s sad EU council of ministers, I think it has reached it. At least for now. That´s why I think a neighborhood agreement for these borderline countries could be advantageous for everyone.

Definitely, this is one of those countries whose strategic importance surpasses all other disquisitions (Turkey, too, by the way). That’s probably the reason why they tried to poison him Yuschenko after they understood his pro West inclinations, and his high chances to become the leader of the nation. I think Russia should also be allowed in somehow to help mitigate the loss of influence over its former satellite states. And that neighborhood agreement probably constitutes the best possible solution.