No. Turkey is a democracy in name only. (IMHO). Turkey has some serious human rights issues to address before they should be allowed in the union. These issues include the Kurdish and Armenian issues which are still on-going. If allowed into the union, Turkey's justice system will rank among the bottom as far as human rights and fairness.
I agree. They should only be admitted on condition of serious improvements in human rights and freedom of the press. I think you can be jailed just for saying the word "Kurdistan", which is just not right.
Would admission increase either positive influence or punitive jurisdiction (more to the point, perhaps) over these matters?
I just voted 'no'. I think that admitting Turkey to the EU could turn out to be a tremendous blunder: Turkey is very poor compared to the nations of Western Europe and has a relatively high birth rate. The United States already illustrates what happens when a rich country abuts a fast growing poor country and there is (essentially) free and unrestricted movement between them. Los Angeles already has 4 million Mexican residents and is less and less American every day. In a few decades a number of Western European capitals are likely to have more Turkish residents than locals. And these Turkish residents will be Muslims. While most urban Turks are quite secular and modern, if the Mexican experience is any guide, the Turkish migrants into Europe will be drawn from among the poorest rural villagers. These people probably represent some of Turkey's most committed and traditional Muslims. And when they gather in huge urban slums in Western Europe, feeling out of place and unwelcome, they will probably grasp even tighter to the religious fudamentalism coming out of the radical mosques. Adding Turkey to the EU will change world political geography dramatically. Suddenly Europe will extend deep into the Middle East, and Europe will share borders with Iraq, Iran and Syria. The passions, instability and violence of those regions will become domestic problems for Europe. And those eastern borders of Turkey are tenuously patrolled and easily crossed. Iranian Shiite militants, Iraqi jihadists from Fallujah and Syrian supporters of Hamas will be able to cross easily into Turkey and then move freely wherever they wish in Europe. Large parts of eastern Turkey have Kurdish majorities, but Turkey refuses to listen to demands for Kurdish independence and attacks Kurdish indepedence activists violently, arresting and shooting them. In reply, many Kurdish militants seem to have become very radical and ugly themselves. That very nasty situation that outsiders seldom hear about will become a European internal matter soon. The Turkish military has traditionally seen itself as the guardian of the nation, and it doesn't hesitate to intervene if it feels that domestic politics is going off the track. But while that's obviously a violation of democratic ideals, those they intervene against are sometimes Islamic militants with troublingly large public followings, so it isn't clear that suppressing anti-democratic Turkish military activism would really be in Euope's long-term advantage. On the plus side, about all that I've heard is the pious idealistic hope that a modern Turkey, fully integrated with the West, will serve as a wonderful beacon, transforming the rest of the Islamic world by its example. But overthrowing Saddam and establishing democracy in a cheering grateful Iraq was supposed to transform the Islamic world too. While I have no doubt that Islam is going to change, I don't think that the West can force the process with poorly-conceived utopian schemes.
I'm not going to touch the cultural differences you're talking about, but the economic parallel you draw between Mexico/America and Turkey/EU is not very practical. Just taking the economic argument by itself, if immigration from Mexico was NOT practically free, here's what would happen: 1) The construction industry would collapse 2) The agricultural and food processing industry would collapse 3) Most tax money GAINED from not providing services to immigrants would be lost again because those immigrants are no longer paying sales taxes and no longer sending home money to Mexico through Western Union and other American companies at a huge profit to those companies. 4) The American birthrate would go into negative territory further increasing the disparity between older and younger Americans. One of the most serious problems facing many of the richer EU countries is a negative birthrate. The countries that DON'T let in lots of new immigrants will be facing very serious problems down the road. Japan is an example of a country that really needs to change its extremely restrictive policy before it becomes a nation where every young worker is supporting 10 senior citizens.
I think you nail it. A Turkey that embraces and accepts Western (universal) values is strategically very important to Europe. That can only be achieved through political and economical support from the EU. Many people think that it would send a sign to the Muslim world strong enough to prevent Samuel Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations. Turkey´s importance become obvious in the aftermath of 9/11 massacre. Previous to that, Turkey was rejected time after time for over 40 years. But can a Muslim country become a real democracy? Bush´s Middle East policy is consistent with this idea. They need a Muslim country that could serve as a model to other Muslim countries in that conflictive area. The Greater Middle East Initiative orbits around this fundamental principle. Bush needs Turkey in the EU, and has been pressing hard to get it. In the short to medium term, this will be great fro EU interests but in the long term it would lose big time influence in Ankara. The problem for its integration is also economic. Turkey is a very large, poor country, and the EU taxpayers will have to be puring billions of € for decades to bring this country anywhere near current EU standards. Even our new Eastern European partners will have to kiss good bye to their structural and cohesion funds.... to benefit what many perceive as an outider. And of course, Islam, the sinister thread that´s on everybody´s mind. While Europe is being persistently decristianized, Islam is taken its place. Yesterday, I visited Maastricht, a Catholic city in the south of the country. They use what used to be churches for things like bicycle parking or concerts auditoriums. It is desperating to observe that Islam is becoming more and more important int he European lifestyle. Austrian and French leaders have promised there will be a referendum to approve Turkey´s membership provided it is ready for it in 10 - 15 years (only one member state is needed to veto its entrance). Nowadays an overwhelming majority of Europeans reject Turkey´s admission in the club. But who knows in one or two decades? Today, Lybian Col. Ghadafi warned Europe that "As far as the Islamic world is concerned - including the Islamic extremists, even bin Laden - they're rejoicing over the entry of Turkey in the European Union. This is their Trojan horse".
I found this in the press today regarding Turkey´s admission in theEU. I don´t comment on it. Dutch populist slams EU Turkey talks "This is typical arrogant behaviour by the political elite. While a majority of the population really doesn't want Turkey to become a member of the European Union, the government and parliament proceed in the wrong direction," says anti-immigration populist Wilders Emma Thomasson AMSTERDAM - Reuters A right-wing Dutch lawmaker has attacked as "elitist arrogance" the European Union's decision to open entry talks with Turkey and vowed to use the issue to encourage voters to reject the new EU constitution. Geert Wilders, an anti-immigration populist who has recently scored more than the ruling Christian Democrats (CDA) in polls, said Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, who holds the rotating EU presidency, had made an "historic mistake". "Turkey has no place in Europe. It is not a European but an Asian country. It is also a Muslim country and we have enough Islam on this side of the Bosphorus," Wilders told parliament earlier this week. "This is typical arrogant behaviour by the political elite. While a majority of the population really doesn't want Turkey to become a member of the European Union, the government and parliament proceed in the wrong direction." EU leaders agreed at a summit chaired by Balkenende last week to open membership talks with Turkey in October next year. All the major parties in the Dutch parliament, including the initially sceptical CDA, voted to back the summit decision. Wilders was forced out of the VVD liberals -- coalition partners of Balkenende's CDA -- in September because of his opposition to Turkey's EU bid. He has vowed to set up a new conservative party to contest elections due in 2007. His appearance in the parliament debate on Tuesday was his first in weeks. He has been in hiding because of Islamist death threats following the murder on Nov. 2 of filmmaker Theo van Gogh, who angered Muslims with his criticism of Islam. Wilders' demand for a halt to immigration, especially from Muslim countries like Turkey, has struck a chord amid rising Dutch hostility towards foreigners following Van Gogh's death. A 26-year-old Dutch-Moroccan has been charged with the killing. The Netherlands is home to about one million Muslims or about 6 percent of the population. Wilders said he would campaign against the new EU constitution in a Dutch referendum next spring, noting that the charter makes a closer link between population size and voting weights of members, benefiting a populous country like Turkey. "If the EU constitution is not adopted, Turkey will gain less influence on the legislation in Europe," he said. Officials fear a serious blow to the constitution if the Netherlands, one of the EU's founding members, rejects the charter in its referendum. Paris is also worried that opposition to Turkey may jeopardise its vote on the constitution. Balkenende told parliament he hoped voters would not mix up the Turkey issue and the EU constitution, which he said would make Europe more manageable, open and transparent. Turkey is likely to join the bloc in a decade at the earliest, he said. A recent poll showed 59 percent of Dutch people oppose Turkey joining the EU, and more than a third said the issue could influence how they vote on Europe's first constitution.
I have not delved too deeply into European politics in recent years but I get the impression on my trips there, and thru friends and family, that there is widespread unhappiness with the cultural and political direction in which the EU is heading. In the UK the extreme right-wing, anti-EU, British National Party is drawing lots of attention and support.
Yes, Ian, it seems that right wing extremist have found the perfect environment for their demgogical messages. Turkey´s opening of discussions for membership has been one of the catalyzers. The pressure of Islam in our societies is another one. Politicians are begining to realize that multiculturalism is simply an entelechy. It simply doesn´t work. At least I hope they do. The problem with Turkey is that it will probably will cost us more (in political and strategical terms) to keep them out than to have them with us. A vast majority of people here want a special relationship with the Turks that would offer the best of both worlds. That way we´d keep this country anchored to the EU values, and institutions, and give them a chance to develop their incipient democracy. But Turks won´t accept this third way solution. As soon as there is a change in the German Chancillery (and surveys tell us it will be soon) it would mean the end of Turkey´s dream to finally become European. Angela Merkel, one othe leaders of the German conservatives, has clearly said "No" to full membership and they are planning to make an issue out of this in the next elections (2006, I think). My personal impression? I am not so sure anymore. I think on one side it´s great to give the opportunity toTurks to develop their democracy and build a nation based on Western values anchored in the principles of democracy (which wouldn´t happen without EU´s structural funds). This would show a way to other Muslim countries to become a democracy and a a way to reconcile both. But if the engine for that change is money (EU funds), what´s the model for other Muslim countries then???? WHat´s so special about it?? How could other countries become democratic without those funds from the EU (say Morocco or Algeria)? So i am notsure about this at all. Many critics say that having Turkey in the EU will mean the end of it. A Muslim country poorer than anybody else and more populous than anybody else (except for Germany) would hold more political power than countries like th UK, France or Italy... which is simply ridiculous. And, of course, then we have the Islam problem... How could we integrate in the Union 80 million of Muslims that would leave their poor cities to (understandibly) find a better lifestyle in Europe? We´d all be soon celebrating the Ramadan So I think this is a little bit the dilema.On one hand it is neccesary to keep Turks anchored to the West and to provide a model to other Islamic nations to reconcile Islamic and democratic principles. And on the other hand to do so would mean sacrificing a lot of our own identity and power to accommodate what many of us perceive as an outsider, and a Horse of Troy. The streets have already said NO to this Turkey business, and populist are taking advantage of it. And British feel special repulsion for the EU so it´s not surprising at all tio hear what your relatives tell you, Ian. Cordial greetings,
