SARS

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussions' started by BillDayson, Apr 23, 2003.

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  1. BillDayson

    BillDayson New Member

    I was talking to some friends about SARS, and we ended up scaring ourselves. Have any of you thought about the implications of this?

    Here is what apparently is a deadly relative of the common cold. It seems that it mutates rapidly, like cold viruses, so that it will end up existing in many different strains and may be very difficult to immunize against. It also appears to be spread very easily, like colds.

    Imagine that the disease remains effectively untreatable and becomes as well entrenched in the human race as the common cold. That means that everyone contracts different strains of SARS multiple times over their lifespans.

    So let's assume one infection per individual per year, times 3% mortality per each infection. That suggests that 50% of the human race would be dead in 16 years, 8 months.

    Obviously lots of things will push the numbers around. There will be resistant individuals who either don't contract the disease or else respond mildly to it. There may be many unreported less severe cases out there that don't seek hospitalization and never come to the attention of the health authorities. If some of those who fall ill only survive with the aid of intensive medical care in hospitals, the scale of this disease could collapse the medical system, pushing mortality higher.

    My nightmare is based on SARS being as widely distributed in the population as the cold virus is now. It isn't that ubiquitous yet, but how can its spread be contained without severing world transportation links, sealing borders and collapsing the globalized economy? Asian airlines are already reeling, Beijing schools are closed and the World Health Organization has just advised people not to visit Toronto. Disruptions will probably get worse.

    If there's any truth to this apocalyptic scenario, then I think that biotech and medical research are going to be a tremendous growth industries in the near future.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 23, 2003
  2. Christopher Green

    Christopher Green New Member

    Risking a huge overgeneralization, we are far too "clean" in our society, and thus our immune systems are far too weak, especially suceptible to viruses that develop in pockets of more highly populated parts of the globe. Some areas seem to simply be incubators for this kind of thing.
     

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