I love the Red Sox. They are my boys. I'm worried about the upcoming season though. Maybe they'll catch that second wildcard position. Maybe. At least we know they'll beat the Yankees (who are going to really suck this year). But what if a Mathematician predicted the outcomes of all the teams for the entire season? Look out Las Vegas. Mathematician publishes 2013 Major League Baseball projections
Not much different than letting the AI of a video game play the season out. On a related topic, baseball is the most statistic-driven of all major American sports, yet the people who are in the decision-making roles are universally mathematically illiterate.
Math and statistics are good at explaining things that have happened. They are very good and predicting amassed outcomes. But they are terrible at predicting the outcomes of individual events. My San Diego Padres were tied for the worst record in the National League during their first year (1969). That was expected. They lost 110 times. That was not surprising. But they won 52 times that year, each one a shocker. Statistics, even sabremetrics, are fun to use and help in the long run. But people being people, you get fooled. The Red Sox are likely gonna suck this year. And if they fielded a comparably poor team (as it seems) 10 years in a row, they'd suck almost every year. But there might be one or two years in that run where they would surprise you. I wonder how robust such modeling is. Do they take into account a team's vulnerability to injury, where the loss of a key player isn't recoverable? Do they account for the quality of the team's farm system, or the front office's ability to maneuver? (These last two attributes helped the Washington Nationals win the division last year.) Even then, there's the variability of human performance. A key player or two having a career year--or a career slump--could make all the difference. No one, for example, saw the 1967 Red Sox coming. And they promptly disappeared, re-emerging after getting Lynn and Rice into the lineup. Finally, about Vegas. Vegas would love that kind of action. Remember, when you bet in a sports book, you aren't betting against the house. You're betting against your fellow bettors. That's what the vig is, and that's what odds (or points) are for. The house takes $11 in a bet to pay $10, with the $1 being vig (short for "vigorish"). Its goal is to have the amount bet on a each side of a contest--a game, a fight, whatever)--the same. It does this by changing the odds or the points to make one or another side more attractive to bettors and to get the books to balance. After the contest, the house keeps the $11 from each loser and pays $10 to each winner. For every $21 wagered, the house keeps $1, no matter the outcome of the contest! The way the house makes money is to increase the betting, period. And they would love to take the action described above.
I just came accross a baseball management simulator called Out of the Park Baseball. The 2008 version is available for free. The interface is polished and the amount of infirmation and control you have over the similation is staggering. I just started a new game and snagged the position as manager for the Tampa Yankees (a NYY minor league team). Before I get to opening day, I have to learn the ins and outs of not only my roster but that of the league around me so that I know what decisions to make in-game and what trades or signings I might need to make. It's a deep game, for sure. My aim is to get signed to the major league Yankees, which would require about as many favorable circumstances to happen in game as it would for a minor league manager in real life. I have to win a ton of games and probably work for several game-years for lower-tier teams before the Yankees would even look at me. There is the easy way of simply starting the game as the manager of your favorite team, if you so choose, but I like the idea of working from the bottom up. I chose to start the game unemployed and had to apply in response to a job listing to get it started.
I've been playing the APBA computer baseball game for years. Wonderfully complicated. Almost no graphics. But because the creators will not offer or allow a Mac-compatible game, I understand quite a few longtime players are moving over to Out of the Park. My regular opponent and I are considering it. [He is Darry Brock, who writes wonderful baseball novels; my favorite is "If I Never Get Back." If I Never Get Back: A Novel: Darryl Brock: 9781583941874: Amazon.com: Books In APBA, we have had some epic battles between "his" 1905 New York Giants and "my" 1941 New York Yankees. Christy Mathewson pitching to Joe DiMaggio. What fun.]
As John knows, I love the statistics of the game and the comparisons across generations. Baseball, more than any other game, allows this. But still, there are limitations. Babe Ruth was the greatest hitter of all time, bar none. But what would he have done against black players? Or how would he have done against late-inning relievers throwing sliders and cut fastballs? Remember, those pitchers' stats were compiled against modern hitters, not the Babe or Ty. I'm sure it's fun to play games where players of different eras are poised against each other. But I'm not sure about the outcomes of such simulations. The Babe might not have hit .250 against modern pitching. It's just hard to say.
Yesyesyes. The Red Sox finish the season with the best record in MLB while the Yankees miss the playoffs. Who would have guessed?
Robinson Cano wants $300mill and 10 years. Let's see if they have learned any lessons, ever. I am a huge fan of Mariano Rivera. More than just his mystifying cutter, but also his mystifying persona. Has any other player in baseball history been so much of a one-man show as him? Between the entrance music, the crowd losing its mind on every pitch and hitters looking visibly shaken- the man was a portable WWE match. Looking at the math, it's hard to say that closers are really that valuable to a team, but for pure psychological edge and one, count it, ONE really, really unhittable pitch, Super Mariano is without equal.
You have to have great respect for Rivera. He's had a very long career and is without question the best closer in MLB history. PLUS, during his whole career you've never heard anyone, anywhere say a bad word about him. In the world of professional sports, with so many scandals, it's nice to see a reallyreally good guy retire at the top of his game. First ballot Hall of Fame.
As a Pirates fan, long suffering fan at that, I can't wait for the wild card game. I've been waiting 21 years for this. I'll be rooting for an A's vs Pirates World Series just so these two teams and their small payrolls can rub it in the face of the bigger markets. Cleveland would be a good WS rep too. Sad to see Rivera retire but his farewell tour this season was awesome. Also, Cano wants $305 million since that last $5mil will make a huge difference.
anyone taking bets on the world series? who gets in? who doesn't? who wins? c'mon it's just for fun? you know i'm going red sox all the way.
