Is an Economic Depression on the Horizon?

I'm not an economic major but the following theory seems to support we are due for a depression soon.

http://www.ldusa.com/roger/kond_overview.htm

 

Five Year Plan???

Given the fact that this guy worked on the Soviet Five Year Plan projects, I would put little or no stock in his academic analysis. Sounds like the economics equivalent of Lysenko to me.

That being said, the theory is interesting, but is really fairly self-evident and not earth shattering at all.

 

Hitler would have been interested to know that WWII lasted from 1929 through 1949. What happened to the Great Depression? Or, if his argument was that the whole period was Great Depression, he's going to have a hard time with the post war inflation and boom 1945-1950.

I agree; someone is trying to sell something, probably gold.

 

I'm not selling anything.

I posted his theory because it is a well respected hypothesis found in my university textbook.

 

No, of course not.

Laser:

Oh no! I certainly didn't mean that I thought YOU were selling anything or even that you agreed with this man's ideas!

Sorry for any misunderstanding.

 

It does not take an economist to see that dificult economic times are upon us. We are right now in an extremelly dificult situation and it's bound to get worse. Specially considering that as soon as interest rates rise the housing bubble will burst. Then we will be looking at a very unfortunate situation. I don't think it will be a depression but it will be very dificult. A dominican economist uses the term "estanflacion" which is the combination of a slow down of the economy to a point that is near a recesion combined with inflation. I hope this does not happen, but that is what I feel will.

 

The U.S. term has been "stagflation". It appears to mean the same thing.

I don't know. If I really thought we were headed for rough times based on WAY too much government SPENDING and not enough taxation, leading to serious inflation in our fiat currency, wouldn't I be buying gold and silver bullion? But I'm not.

If I really thought the balance of payments was going to result in serious devaluation of the dollar, wouldn't I be buying gold and silver bullion, or at least, foreign currency? But I'm not.

The U.S. economy is employing people at a rate that, historically, is identified with GOOD times, not BAD times. Inflation over the last decade or so is at a standstill. (This may change with irresponsible government fiscal policies and high oil prices, but it hasn't yet.)

I keep getting the feeling that lefties like me are screaming about the economy mostly because we'd LIKE it to be awful in order to blame the current Administration for how awful it is. The problem is, it ISN'T awful. It isn't even BAD. By any rational measure, the U.S. is doing WELL.

 

Thank You. I did not know the term in english...

 

Decline

Don't worry, I just thought I would clarify that I had nothing to sell. Thank you for considering my feelings. I have not taken anything personally.

Anyway, Miguelstefan has indicated an important point about the housing bubble.

I'm personally concerned about the US auto industry. Ford and Delphi are not looking very healthy. The auto industry decline has ripple affects on the rest of the economy.

The airline industry is looking very poor too.

 

Delphi Files for Bankruptcy

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/08/news/fortune500/delphi/index.htm?cnn=yes

 

Poor guy met with the usual Soviet fate.

 

I am pretty depressed - it that worth anything?

 

Re: Five Year Plan???

Nah. Unlike this guy, Lysenko wasn't jailed - his predessesor as the President of Soviet Academy of Agricultural Studies was. So no analogy. And Five-Year Plan is a pretty major project.
I would agree that his theory, alone, is unlikely to have much predictive power now. Economics is not that precise of a science, in general, and Kondratieff certainly was unavare of whatever changes occured in economic environment since, what, 1928?

 

Everything goes in cycles. Certainly we have gone through some rough patches, and situations like 9/11, Katrina, and Rita have not helped. However, I do not think the world is coming apart, either.

We will see some changes in the long term that will have lasting effects here in this country. While we are still an important player, we are no longer the only dominant one. Other economic centers, such as Europe, Japan, India, and potentially China are coming up fast. Add to the mix changes in technology that have a profound effect on the way companies can deliver products and services to new and existing markets, and you have a new game.

The interesting thing with this new game is that the US is no longer the only player writing the rules. Other players will have a significant impact on shaping the rules, and their concept of what those rules should look like will differ from the US perspective. Even other western players/allies will want changes to those rules for their benefit, not the US benefit.

So, while I expect to see changes, and I expect to see challenges, especially for US companies, I also see potential for opportunities. That is, of course, the US learns to play in the new sandbox.

 

Dow Nears a 5 Month Low

Is the stock market showing signs of future declines?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/

 

Inflation

Today, the largest inflation rise in 25 years was realized !



http://news.yahoo.com/fc/Business/US_Economy:

 

Earning Reports Come Out Tomorrow

The earning reports of 3M and Intel are expected to influence the stock market.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9720596/

 

Ford Closing

Ford Closing Plant in Detroit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051020/bs_nm/autos_ford_dc