Depression coming? Might put off doctorate for a year or two.

I am reading the book "Aftershock" by economist Robert Wiedemer and he has got me pretty spooked. I have long felt extremely uneasy with the state of our nation and this book has fueled the fire. Considering that our nation is spending so much more than it takes in, it appears that a day of reckoning is approaching. Wiedemer is suggesting that we will be facing a second Great Depression that will be orders of magnitude worse than our recent recession, and it will begin in the next few years. The evidence he offers to support this notion is convincing. There is too much information on that to cover here. Of course, he is not necessarily correct, but his reasoning fits with what I have felt in my gut for a number of years.

In light of this, I am considering finishing my EdS degree, which will be complete this summer, and then holding off with finishing the EdD for a year or two to see what happens with our nation. (Liberty offers the option of an EdS at the half-way point on the EdD) My reasoning is twofold: 1. I may need the money I would be spending on the doctorate for other things if the jobless rate is as bad as he predicts. 2. If we do face a severe depression, there will be no jobs for new doctorate holders anyway. I was never looking for any significant ROI on the doctorate, but I at least wanted to use it to do something, not just as a trophy.

Thoughts?

 

I can only speak for myself, but I find that I do better once I'm "on a roll".....I took one semester off between my B.A. and first M.A., and it was a minor chore to get back into "school mindset". I took 6 years off between my first and second Master's programs, and it was brutal to get myself motivated and shake off the rust, which is why I went right from that into the doctorate program.

If you're anything like me, if you don't immediately go for the Ed.D., you probably never will.

Of course, you may be nothing like me, so YMMV.

 

In 1920, a 20 dollar gold coin was worth 20 dollars. Today, that same 20 dollar gold coin is worth around $1600 because it has an ounce of gold in it. However, the value of a 20 dollar paper note will only buy you two tickets to the movies, but not enough for popcorn. The 20 dollar gold coin has retained its value, while the paper fiat money has lost most of its value.

Prior to WWII, it took a wheelbarrow of German Deutschmarks to buy a loaf of bread, due to the devaluation of their paper currency. What is going on in the 21st Century with the paper fiat currencies of all sovereign nations?

 

I would say given current economic conditions, only those with direct career goals related to particular degrees should be enrolled. The only exception would be the few who have money to burn anyway and want personal enrichment.

 

And here I thought grad school was a place to ride out recessions and depressions.

 

That really only works if you are in a funded program.


If you are racking up debt, it makes the hole twice as deep when you do come out.

 

I agree. Fortunately for me, I'm not taking on any debt to do the doctorate. Just pulling money out of savings. Considering the tax breaks and my automatic raise, the doctorate would only ultimately use $10 to 12K of my savings, but even that is a lot if we have the second Great Depression.

 

Must we assume a deflationary collapse? If the $ implodes, a leveraged PHD might become easier to pay off! ;-)

 

My thoughts, for what they are worth:
Unfortunately, all debts eventually come due! Sooner rather than later, our economy will have a reckoning with the drunken sailor spending of the last half century.

- Can the politicians kick the can down the road?
- Will the wealthy pay a bigger share?
- Will the truly needy have to do with less?
- Will social programs grow or shrink?
- Will enough college students delay education long enough to cause enrollment shrinkage? (Obviously some are already thinking of taking of this route.)
- Will your private business job, tenured teaching, or government position go away?
As the ex-Boy Scout in me warns…..Be Prepared!!!!! :raincloud:

 

I know you are kidding, but there is a ring of truth in that. Those who have taken economics will remember that in heavy inflation, which is what he is predicting, the actual cost of a loan decreases because the value of the money you borrowed declines as the price of other goods increases. You owe the same as before, but the dollars you are paying back are worth less than they were when you took out the loan. Given you still have a job and can afford to pay.

 

LOL. I'm depressed about the depression. :smile:

 

As you already know, currency needs to first be converted to something stable….like loaves of bread, eggs, gold or similar, in order to compare relative costs between two time periods. A dollar ain’t what it used to be. :crying:

 

Yep,any leveraged debt is easier to pay off in inflationary times…..if you have the money! :tongue:

 

Bright note:

On the bright side, I grew up on a ranch and farm….and I’m not there now! :tongue:

My Mom said recessions and depressions did not matter because it was always depressing out there on a farm, and I agree. But, at least we had plenty to eat if we could keep the thieves away. irate:

 

SurfDoctor,

I wouldn't recommend dipping into your savings to finish the EdD. Use loans if you must, but in times of trouble, you are MUCH better off having the savings with a loan than no savings without a loan.

 

Hey it might just be the borrowing that increases inflation - not the depression. Too many borrowers chasing to few dollars.

 

Also, if you think you might finish the doctorate later, it's worth it to borrow the money now. Tuition costs go up much faster than the rate of inflation and the cost of interest on the loans. You might actually pay less by taking out a loan and repaying it over 10 years than waiting to pay for it out of pocket 10 years later.

 

Thanks for that, but I would only be using a small fraction of my savings. Still, your idea is sound. If times get really bad, how much savings would be enough? Who knows?