Are we in an higher education bubble? Is it going to pop and nail us all?

Discussion in 'General Distance Learning Discussions' started by SurfDoctor, Jun 5, 2010.

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  1. SurfDoctor

    SurfDoctor Moderator

    With the outrageous costs of higher education and the soaring debt that some students are going into to pay for it, I'm beginning to feel that we may be experiencing a higher education bubble. It is in some ways similar to the .com bubble and the recent housing bubble, both of which were caused by skyrocketing costs that were heavily financed beyond sustainability. I'm concerned that this is all going to pop and there will be a backlash; possibly a mini "recession" in the education market.

    What do you think?
     
  2. SurfDoctor

    SurfDoctor Moderator

    Pardon my typo in the title.
     
  3. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    Well, the safe thing to do is to get your degrees in as soon as possible. Whether there is a bubble or not, prices will keep getting higher. I'm really hoping that next year, when I plan to enroll, Columbia College doesn't cost double what they do now. I'm also hoping I never need another degree.
     
  4. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    If pedants can say "an historic," you can say "an higher." :)
     
  5. SurfDoctor

    SurfDoctor Moderator

    Thanks, I feel better!
     
  6. cjzande

    cjzande New Member

    I keep wondering what's going to happen here. I read somewhere (don't know if it's really accurate or not) that college prices have doubled since I was in school in the late 80s/early 90s. It's hard for me to judge. I changed schools, so my tuition varied, had some scholarship money, worked in a college-work-study program, and I had a bit of a trust fund to get me through school. Which is all to say, I can't remember exactly how much my degree cost in the end.

    I *do* worry about my daughter, who is only just turning 13 - wondering how much more it will cost to get her through school than her brother. :(

    I just hope we don't see a lot of the smaller schools going out of business/closing down if the bubble bursts.


    A few days ago I was in Comment Purgatory. Then I got out. YAY! Then I was back in. Then I got out again. YAY...? Then, yesterday, I tried to make a post in another thread and... yep, I was back in, waiting for moderator approval. I can't for the life of me figure out why, but, I'm just going to say, in the event I'm still sitting in the "Not Yet Ready For Primetime" section - excuse me if this doesn't show up for 2 days and it looks like I'm way behind the conversation.

    *begs* I'd really like to be out of CP now. [/small voice]
     
  7. TonyM

    TonyM Member

    The costs are crazy now. I hope something pops. We seem to be discussing foreign universities and DETC more here lately, maybe as a reflection of the tuition increases in the USA.
     
  8. me again

    me again Well-Known Member

    There are two different kinds of education bubbles that can be independent of each other, but can run concurrently:

    Scenario 1
    Federal Education Loans are Pumping-Up the Education Bubble
    It's all about supply and demand. As long as the federal government is willing to make risky loans to students who have a high default rate, then the education bubble will grow indefinitely. If the feds were to severely curtail their spending on collegiate-level education, then the cash supply for financial assistance would shrink, along with a commensurate number of enrollments. It would probably hit the online for-profit colleges and universities the hardest.

    Scenario 2
    Too Many Degrees & Not Enough Jobs
    Another scenario is another 1930s-like depression-like scenario. What good is a garden variety college degree if there is no market for it? For example, degrees in "womens studies" or "art history" or (insert your garden variety degree here) may be worthless if the unemployment rate goes too high.

    Scenario 3
    Possible Concurrency of Scenarios 1 and 2
    We already have more and more people who receive 100k federal student loans for degrees that are not yielding high paying jobs; and they are asking: Are the benefits of getting a college degree a stereotypical myth? If too many people come to this conclusion, then the education bubble will invariably begin to deflate; people must believe in education to spend that kind of exorbitant money on it.
     
  9. SurfDoctor

    SurfDoctor Moderator

    I am guessing it will be the fact that all of these people will get the expensive degrees without subsequently finding high paying jobs. This would be especially likely with the generalist degrees, as you mentioned. The exception might be those who manage a degree from Harvard, or similar, and are able to use that elite degree to find an elite position.
     
  10. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    This pretty much sums up what I expect. I think both scenarios are going to happen. When will people get it through their heads (especially the federal government!) that you can give a Ph.D to every last person in the country, but new jobs will not magically be created because of it. There will not be a greater demand for professionals, and someone will still be needed to mop the floors.

    Me again, I don't think that Women's Studies is completely worthless, IF it is coupled with another major that could be combined with a specific goal in mind. Think: double major in Women's Studies and Premed with the intent of going to med school and becoming a Gynocologist (sorry, my Blackberry's spell checker is stumped on that one). Think: double major in Women's Studies and Marketing to land a job working for Playtex. It's not so far fetched when you realize that many products and services are geared specifically towards women, so knowing about their collective psychology, demography and history would not be necessarily a waste. BTW- where can one find a Men's Studies degree? :rolleyes:
     
  11. eilla05

    eilla05 New Member

    I have yet to understand why your average Joe getting a degree in (insert garden variety as you call it) spends 100k for that degree. Did they not research before hand? An example would be me spending 100k on my degree in human service when I know good and well I wont be making 30k a year from it full time plus overtime if I am lucky to get paid that .. Heck right now I might be doing good to make 20k with it! I truly believe if it does burst it will be from idiotic people getting your average degrees and paying entirely to much for them.

    I do agree with everything you said :)
     
  12. RFValve

    RFValve Well-Known Member

    Well, it seems that the demand for BS and MBAs is greater than ever. Most employers expect you to have a minimum of a BS for an entry level position and a MBA for an entry level managerial position.
    However, I don't know in the US but in Canada many Universities have a hard time attracting PhD and Master research based students. I work at a major University and we have closed our MSc because of lack of enrollment. As for PhD students, most studens are recluited from other countries but recently we are not able to attract enough students as the academic market in the recent years have been awful. I know there are quite a few people doing online PhDs but these folks are already employed so they are just doing it as self improvement and most don't hope for full time academic employment.

    I believe the market for PhDs is going to burst but I doubt it will happen for MBAs and BS. The market for PhD graduates is really weak so it is possible that when the market has enough of them, you will have many online programs closing. Many folks doing online PhDs are already employed at K12s or community colleges. However, I believe that governments are going to start cutting salary increases for PhDs. Why do you need a kindergarden teacher with a business PhD? Why a taxpayer needs to pay more because a kinder garden teacher has a PhD in Finance? It is happening now, my ex gf is a kinder garden teacher taking a PhD program at Walden, I'm sure some of her coworkers will start to follow and at some point the government is going to say "enough is enough".
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 5, 2010
  13. djacks24

    djacks24 New Member

    Great summary! I have already seen articles stating what you said about the oversupply of graduates for very few jobs. I don't know what to believe any more between the government pushing education saying we dropped to 10th in the world in number of college grads, yet we have more grads than job openings? At least when this bubble pops it's not going to be so easy for the government to point fingers at private industry for causing all this. Of course the government will try to blame the for profits schools for everything. But the for profits and the population in general will be able to point right back at the government in regards to granting money to the for profits through grants and loans and by building up the whole smoke and mirrors urgency of doubling the number of college grads within a short amount of time.
     
  14. SurfDoctor

    SurfDoctor Moderator

    Yes, when the government stops doling out the loans, this craziness will stop. I disagree with those who suggest that entrance into the less expensive doctoral programs should be restricted, but allowing people to rack up $100K for a degree that will not likely earn the money to pay for itself IS almost criminal and should be limited.
     
  15. thomaskolter

    thomaskolter New Member

    Excuse me when an employer demands a bachelors to even manage a Burger King no matter what the degree is what is an average joe to do? Go get the "easiest" degree to get the bit of paper at whatever price he can afford or take loans out. Why do you think UoP gets so many people they need or think they need the degree so pay for an easy option.
     
  16. SurfDoctor

    SurfDoctor Moderator

    Are you saying they require a BA to manage a Burger King? I find that hard to swallow. (pun intended)
     
  17. TCord1964

    TCord1964 New Member

    I do think the minimum requirement of a bachelor degree has gotten out of hand. Years ago, high school graduates could have filled many of these jobs and done just fine. The real problem? Kids these days aren't learning crap in high school. That's why so many businesses are requiring the bachelor degrees. At least they know the college grad will be able to read and write.

    When I was in high school, vocational classes were part of the curriculum (welding, auto repair, carpentry, etc.). I think there needs to be a new emphasis on vo-tech education in high schools and steering some students not meant for college (those students know who they are) into trade and service jobs. There will always be a need for skilled labor.
     
  18. RFValve

    RFValve Well-Known Member

    Why not? In Canada you have some people with master's degrees working in the fast food industry. Check the the you tube video below:

    YouTube - Canada's Immigration
     
  19. TCord1964

    TCord1964 New Member

    According to this ad, a college degree is not required to be a manager at Burger King, but they do prefer four years of experience and at least two years of college.

    According to PayScale.com, a Burger King restaurant GM makes about $35,000 per year, plus benefits.
     
  20. RFValve

    RFValve Well-Known Member

    This is exactly what is happening. I started working in the IT industry in the early 80's, back then programmers and computer specialists were mainly people with high schools and some training in computers. People with a bachelor's degrees were normally the managers or Directors of IT departments.
    If you read job ads nowadays, many companies are looking for people with a minimum of a BS and a set of certifications just to do technical customer service. So yes, kids with less academic interests are looking for a "paper" qualification just to get a job. Schools know this so they put weak easy programs just to give the paper qualification to young kids that have less academic interest.
    The BS will become the new high school and this will drive the demand of online BS degrees as least for a while. The same is happening with MBAs, it is becoming almost a minimum requirement for an entry level managerial position so the demand for "weaker" and "easier" MBA programs that have no GMAT or math requirements will increase.
     

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