When it comes to the topic of the overseas outsourcing of IT jobs all I can say is that I feel your pain. However, despite the recently reported drop in admissions to Computer Science programs, I say full steam ahead. As an analyst for a large software development firm (Best Software – the US division of Sage Group) I believe that the current market is evolving such that the outflow of jobs is fundamentally limited. If you’ve worked in software development for retail you probably know that market share is most often determined by who gets to market first. Over the past several years, the software development cycle has become increasingly shorter so that firms don’t fall behind the competition. Software development methodologies have been evolving to support this rapid pace. In fact, XP or extreme programming methodologies try to shorten the development cycle by giving the actual end-users direct participation in the development process. In an XP methodology the end-user is important for providing direct feedback to the development teams and to validate prototypes which are iteratively enhanced until they meet the end-user’s requirements. In an XP methodology, the process doesn’t start by first producing stacks of design documents, but rather, the developer produces minimally required documentation (often just comments in the code) from interviewing the end-user. In practice, XP has been proven to shorten development cycles and it gives the end-user more ownership over the actual result. From my experience with India-based development teams, they are only cost effective when the project is larger than a certain size. With these projects, precise specifications must be provided to ensure the final product meets the needs of the organization or market. The model for outsourcing development is often based on a waterfall model where specifications must be written before development can begin. As XP development methodologies gain more inroads into development groups, I believe that domestic development departments will not only be able to produce software faster, but the end result will better meet the expectations of the end-user/customer/client since they play an important role in steering the development of features. Since I don’t believe Indian or Chinese development teams will be able to interact with customers in the same capacity as domestic teams, they will be at a disadvantage when it comes to producing quality software quickly. As I mentioned earlier, retail development firms will pay a premium for quickly developed software. It often means the difference between success and failure in a given market. The increase in IT outsourcing does mean domestic development groups will no longer be a viable choice in certain areas (e.g. conversions); however, development projects where the developer must interact closely with the end-user, must understand cultural norms or understand local/national legislation, will place foreign developers at a disadvantage. IT professionals are now faced with a challenge to look for different kinds of jobs within their field. Higher abstraction jobs (analysts, project management) are safer than coders. However, even coders on teams whose job is to produce high quality software quickly will remain in demand. I look at the decrease in Computer Science enrollments to be an opportunity as this is likely to result in a shortage in qualified developers for projects requiring rapid development. I liken the current situation to investment where often, the time to buy is when everyone else is selling.
Hi Joann I think you are very accurate in your description of the job market. While outsourcing is a significant trend, the top job growth areas are all computer related. As long as the business cycle stays neutral to positive there will be huge growth. If we hit a strong recession or worse it will be pretty ugly. Even in that situation there will be niche areas with strong needs. Thanks for the excellent post!
IT Doesn't Matter There is an excellent article published in Harvard Business Review of May 2003 entitled, "IT Doesn't Matter" by Nicholass Carr. There is a section called Commodization of IT that sheds light that IT is driven more towards commodization.
Forget IT - no future at all If my child expressed any interest in studying IT, I would do everything in my power to discourage it. There is simply NO future in IT, especially in the "commodity" skills, such as programming and DBA work. Project management might continue to be the escape route for incompetent programmers for a while longer, but that is rapidly being "professionalized" by PMI, etc. (good for them!) Also, if you do any part of your job by telecommuting, then you are a prime target for outsourcing. If YOU can do it remotely, then so can someone in India... JoAnn's analysis is rosy, but unrealistic. Most IT jobs are not in software development companies, but in ordinary corporations where IT is not understood and is seen as a cost center. Also, most senior management couldn't care less about quality products - all they care about is the next quarter's numbers on the Street (and their bonuses). I have been in IT for almost 30 years and some things never change. I have never been unemployed, but I have worked unceasingly to acquire skills and experience that are in short supply and can't be "packaged". Even so, I am feeling the chill, so I am retraining now for another field, so I will be ready when the last IT job is "offshored". When I leave IT, it will be without a look back. Stay out of IT, it's a dying field.
Re: Forget IT - no future at all Your travels parallel mine and I would agree that IT is a field to shy away from, reminiscent of mechanical engineering. Try finding a non-computer position with a resume that reflects only IT/IS/MIS experience. I am in the longest period of unemployment in my entire career and pickings are extremely slim, there always seemed to be more job openings than candidates now its just the opposite.
Retraining I am trying to give myself several options. I am a database specialist (Oracle DBA) with extensive data warehousing experience, so I am studying data mining and statistics to help me move more into the business side of things (this is a real option at my current job). I already have database marketing experience. In addition, I have joined the local chapter of ISACA (IS auditing) to network there (I also have some financial background, and I once worked for Price Waterhouse). There is also a new opportunity to use data mining techniques in IS audit. Also, IS audit seems to be an area where experience actually counts for you, not against you. Taking the CompTIA Security+ and ITProject+ tests is a good start (I'm doing them in the summer). Last of all, I am planning to take the CPA exam. I know that some accounting "grunt work" is being offshored, but there are plenty of other niches to be filled. It might also be useful for part-time work when I am older. I considered law, but there is a glut of lawyers already, and moving to another state is a hassle. The drawback of the CPA is that it is very tough, even harder than the Bar. The first time pass rate is about 50%, overall pass rate is about 15%! One other field worth looking into is bioinformatics or health care informatics, but the former requires some knowledge of molecular biology. It can be done, however. Get the book "Bioinformatics for Dummies" from your local library. The critical thing is to get out of "commodity" work. To those of you having a hard time finding work, try to use what you know to move "sideways" into a related field, if possible. You must also consider a complete break from IT and learn something else entirely. Good luck to one and all.
This is a question to SQLplus. You seem to be a knowledgable person in Oracle and this question might digress from the topic of IT outsourcing. Are you an OCP (Oracle Certified Professional)? Does being an OCP increase one's marketability?
This is a question to SQLplus. You seem to be a knowledgable person in Oracle and this question might digress from the topic of IT outsourcing. Are you an OCP (Oracle Certified Professional)? Does being an OCP increase one's marketability?
Certification can definitely help Yes, I am Oracle Certified. While there is no substitute for real experience (especially in DBA work, where errors can be disastrous), I think that many employers use the certificates as a filter to reduce the number of candidates they interview. It's unfortunate, because many fine DBA's have no certificate, and some OCP's can't do the job. In the team that I work in, we are discussing how to implement a requirement that all of our Oracle developers have to pass the Oracle PL/SQL Developer tests (there are two). This is to set a standard for the developers. I am sure that this will be received with mixed feelings. In the bigger picture, I believe that something like an MBA would be more valuable, although having that as well as the certs is the best combo (assuming you have the experience).
Excellent Analysis SQLPlus Excellent analysis. IT is gone in general and will continue to go. Outsourcing is not going to stop in a near distant future. The only area that will flourish is Network/Information Security including IT Project Management.
The "chicken-little" hype is inane. The industry has been increasing its percentage of outsourced projects for quite some time; it's just become more obvious during the recent economic slowdown. That said, no responsible company will turn over the keys to their information technology to another company (especially a foreign one). That's not to say that jobs that don't require a high level of education (ie programming, database admin) won't be outsourced because they will. But IT strategy and architecture will remain a core component of a successful 21st century company. So, if you're in a position that doesn't require knowledge of the overall IT architecture (ie EAI) or the core business, you are a candidate for outsourcing. On the other hand, if you understand these things and you have a solid technical and business education, you will be gainfully employed and highly compensated for the remainder of your career...
Apologies for not weighing in on this discussion earlier... I was on vacation. SQLplus' career closely parallels my experiences, except he's been at it over 10 years longer. Me: Oracle DBA, OCP, data warehousing guru (legend in my own mind, just ask me!), developer in VB, C++ & Java. A jack of all trades, master of a couple. I hold an OCP certification also. I've not had the opportunity to see how the certification affects my marketability since I've been at the same job since certifying. I did receive an increase in salary due to the certification though. As a manager of DBA's (think herding cats), and given 2 nearly equal candidates for a position based on experience, I would choose the candidate with the OCP. An OCP absent of experience is worthless to me as an employer. As for an experienced DBA with the certification, the OCP shows that they have at least brushed against most Oracle topics and went to the trouble (effort) to gain certification. Although I cannot require my team to take the certification exams, I am actively encouraging them to do so by paying for passed exams and providing study materials. I also hold an MBA and found that it has opened the doors to a few jobs, past & present. I worked a consulting gig at Ernst & Young that most likely wouldn't have been open to me without the MBA. I am also in management at this time, largely due to the knowledge gained by the MBA studies. The diploma didn't hurt either. Looking forward to a bleak IT existence, I too am looking for that next career outside, or at least on the fringe of IT. I've considered the CPA path due to my accounting exposure, but put that plan on the back burner in favor of earning a Ph.D. A doctorate should help me get into teaching at the college level when and if it's time to leave IT. I disagree with philosophist about the "chicken-little" hype. I personally have seen huge IT layoffs in my town (Kansas City, MO/KS) due to outsourcing. I even have friends and family who have been severely impacted by the loss of their programming jobs. The reality is that jobs are going overseas, just like manufacturing jobs did 30+ years ago. I take umbrage to the comment by philosophist that singles out programming and database admin jobs as positions that don't require a high level of education. There are many other aspects of IT that don't require a high level of education, as in ALL other positions. Anyone can be a trained IT monkey, be it in system analysis, business analysis, project management, quality assurance, programming and even database administration regardless of a higher education. Just because you claim advanced core business or IT architecture knowledge, you're job is just as easily outsourced as someone without the knowledge. I like the comment about being “highly compensated for the remainder of your career”. High compensation expectations in this day and age are a fallacy left-over from the Dot-Com days. Sure, you can ask for a high salary, and maybe you’ll find that rare job that will pay you what you think you’re worth. But the reality of the current economy is that any additional opportunities are severely limited at your asking price. My father was a company man who worked for 35 years at one job at one company. I’ve worked in the finance, healthcare and telecom industries over the last 20 years and found that mergers and bankruptcies happen so often that the usual company sign is a post-it note with the current name hand-written on it posted on the front door of the building. With each merger, I’m wondering if my highly-compensated position is being eliminated or outsourced. Not to mention the bankruptcies due to the greed and mismanagement of the executive management. I took a compensation hit to come to my current workplace because that’s what the economy said it should be. If I had to make a move tomorrow, I would take yet another salary decrease even though I’m rated one of the best technical and business contributors at my current workplace (a vp's observation, not my own overstuffed ego). The reality is that the days of highly compensated IT workers are in the twilight stage. In a nutshell (love those O’Reilly books), IT is an industry in decline in the US. Accept it, readjust your expectations, and move on or out. Education helps, but doesn’t guarantee anything. Find a new career that can’t be outsourced. Fast food comes to mind… Rick
something to keep in mind is that CS enrollments had increased dramatically past the mid 90's. They're still increasing relative to earlier periods. IT sector numbers often don't reflect CS roles in informatics disciplines - computational finance, comp-bio/bioinformatics, computational sciences et.al. Most of these areas are still very young. Their underlying markets ( finance , biotech , grand challenge applications ) are healthy and expected to grow significantly over the next several decades. They also tend to be localized roles. IMO informatics applications provide a better long term opportunity for CS grads than IT does. IT will continue to commoditize, beyond outsourcing there's the real potential for design and administrative automation advances that'll displace IT roles a/o greatly reduce their barriers to entry.
Re: Forget IT - no future at all If you are correct, then JoAnn, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Business Week, etc. are wrong. Guess whose opinion(s) count for more?
Re: Forget IT - no future at all If you are correct, then JoAnn, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Business Week, etc. are wrong. Guess whose opinion(s) count for more?
